MCX Gold futures can rally to Rs 53,150; Silver likely to decline further

Gold futures are likely to trade with a bullish bias as long as they hold above Rs 51,535 in the entire month of July; Silver futures could decline towards Rs 53,850.

The MCX Gold futures logged strong gains on Friday after the government in a surprise move hiked basic Customs duty on gold by 5 per cent. 

This is the sharpest increase in the import duty on gold by the government, and experts believe this may extend the slack season for Gold. READ MORE

Gold

Bias: Marginally Positive

Last Close: Rs 51,950

Upside Target: Rs 53,150

Key Support: Rs 51,535

The MCX Gold futures, which, were seen trading with a negative bias for most part of the week, witnessed a sharp 2.8 per cent rally on Friday following the duty hike. 

In the process, gold futures managed to close above the higher-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts. Further, the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) and the 50-DMA are now seen coinciding around Rs 50,850-level. As per the price-to-moving averages action, the only worry now seems the fact that both 20-DMA and 50-DMA are still below the 100-DMA placed around Rs 51,245.

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index), Slow Stochastic and ADX (Average Directional Index) are all in favour of the bulls.

As per the weekly chart, Gold futures have ended above the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) and now seem headed towards the higher-end of the Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, indicating a target of Rs 53,150. The 20-WMA at Rs 51,535 is likely to act as an immediate support for the yellow metal in the near term.

The sharp rally on Friday has also trigged a 'Buy' signal on the monthly Fibonacci chart. As per the chart, the bias for MCX Gold is likely to remain bullish for the remainder of the month as long as the commodity sustains above Rs 51,535, below which the next major support are placed at Rs 51,150 and Rs 50,880.

According to weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Gold August futures this week may move in a broad range of Rs 51,000 to Rs 52,900. Gold futures may seek support around Rs 51,610 - 51,360 - 51,175; whereas on the upside, Gold prices are likely to face resistance around Rs 52,290 - 52,540 - 52,725.

On Monday, MCX Gold August futures are likely to seek support around Rs 51,675 - 51,470 - 51,180; whereas resistances for the commodity can be expected around Rs 52,225 - 52,430 - 52,725.

Similarly, Gold Mini July futures may seek support around Rs 51,415 - 51,000 - 50,425; whereas on the upside are likely to face resistance around Rs 52,500 - 52,910 - 53,500 on Monday.

Silver

Bias: Range-bound

Last Close: Rs 57,800

Resistance: Rs 60,700

Downside Target: Rs 53,850

Last week, the MCX Silver futures finally broke from its trading range of Rs 58,500 to Rs 63,000, with a weekly close at Rs 57,800.

The price-to-moving averages action continues to remain favourable for the bears both on the daily and the weekly charts, with the latter indicating a downside target of Rs 53,850 - which is where the 200-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) stands. The key momentum oscillators are also in favour of the bears. 

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver July futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 55,750 to Rs 59,850; with support expected around Rs 57,070 - 56,530 - 56,135. On the upside, Silver futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 58,530 - 59,070 - 59,465.

On Monday, Silver futures are likely to seek support around Rs 57,450 - 57,190 - 56,810, while on the upside the commodity may face resistance around Rs 58,150 - 58,410 - 58,600.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini futures may seek support around Rs 58,255 - 57,965 - 57,545; while Silver could face resistance around Rs 59,040 - 59,330 - 59,755 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro futures could seek support around Rs 58,245 - 57,955 - 57,530 and might face resistance around Rs 59,030 - 59,320 - 59,745 today.