MCX Crude Oil may test Rs 9,000-mark; Key hurdle for Natural Gas at Rs 590

The MCX Natural Gas futures can slide all the way towards its 100-DMA placed at Rs 485-level; Crude Oil prices may see share reaction on breakout of the Rs 9,000-9,700 expected trading band.

Crude Oil

Bias: Positive

Last close: Rs 9,403

Support: Rs 9,010

Resistance: Rs 9,700

After testing the higher-end of the Bollinger Band, the MCX Crude Oil futures once again seem headed towards the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average). Crude Oil prices have been treading northwards in the particular band since early May. The current band indicates a price range of Rs 9,010 to Rs 9,700.

The MCX Crude Oil June futures could test the support at Rs 9,010 as prices correct. The probability of this happening seems higher as select key momentum oscillators are showing signs of tiredness, with MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) turning negative. 

Accordingly to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil futures so far this week have tested the support at S2 level and resistance at R2. The weekly indicated band is Rs 9,115 to Rs 9,680, with support expected around Rs 9,225 and Rs 9,170; whereas resistance seen at Rs 9,575 and Rs 9,630.

A move beyond the indicated weekly trading band could trigger a sharper reaction in prices. The monthly futures & options this week can trigger such a move.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Crude Oil futures may trade in a range of Rs 9,230 to Rs 9,575. The commodity may seek support around Rs 9,295 - 9,260; whereas on the upside is likely to face resistance around Rs 9,465 - 9,510.

Natural Gas

Bias: Cautious

Last close: Rs 573

Resistance: Rs 590

Support: Rs 485

The MCX Natural Gas June futures witnessed a massive fall of almost 15 per cent in trades on Wednesday. Pursuant to which, the commodity ended below the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart for the first time since December 31, 2021.

In the process, the Natural Gas futures have also ended below its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) and the 50-DMA placed at Rs 669 and Rs 605, respectively.

While the broader outlook remains positive, as the price-to-moving average action is favourably one needs to exercise caution currently as the short-term bias is likely to remain negative as long as the commodity trade below the lower-end of the Bollinger Band, indicating resistance at Rs 590-level.

On the downside, the Natural Gas futures can decline towards the 100-DMA indicating a downside target of Rs 485. 

The MCX Natural Gas futures have broken all the key weekly Fibonacci support levels, and as such any pull-back rallies could face stiff resistance around Rs 620 during the week. 

According to the monthly Fibonacci chart, the next key support for Natural Gas futures stand at Rs 535 and Rs 508.

As per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Natural Gas futures on Wednesday may trade in a broad range of Rs 485 to Rs 660; with support expected around Rs 541.80 - 518.9 - 502.20 and resistance likely around Rs 604.20 - 627 - 643.90.