Major hurdle for Gold seen at Rs 51,300; Silver awaits decisive move

Gold futures need to break above Rs 51,300 for fresh gains to emerge, on the downside break of Rs 50,300 can trigger a slide to Rs 49,400-odd level.

Gold and Silver prices last week largely traded with a negative bias, however, they managed to sustain above the key support levels. Here's what is likely in store this week.

Gold

Bias: Marginally negative

Last Close: Rs 50,623

Resistance: Rs 51,300

Support: Rs 50,300; Rs 49,400

The MCX Gold futures continue to trade on an indecisive note, with the short-term bias turning marginally negative on the daily chart. As per the price-to-moving averages action, Gold futures traded below the key moving averages - 20-, 50- and 100-DMA for most part of the last trading week.

Further, the 20-DMA now placed at Rs 50,870-odd level has slipped below the 50-DMA and 100-DMA placed at Rs 51,030 and Rs 51,120 levels. However, the price-to-moving averages action remains positive on the weekly chart, with 20-WMA (Rs 51,300) holding smartly above its 50-WMA (Rs 49,050).

Having said that, a point of worry is that Gold futures ended below the crucial 20-WMA for the second straight week in a row last Friday. The near term may favour the bears in case Gold prices are unable to recover and sustain above Rs 51,300.

Key momentum oscillators both on the daily and weekly charts are in favour of the bears. The daily chart indicates that sustained trade below Rs 50,300 level can trigger a slide towards Rs 49,400 - its 200-DMA.

According to weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Gold August futures this week may move in a broad range of Rs 50,170 to Rs 51,080. Gold futures may seek support around Rs 50,460 - 50,340 - 50,255; whereas on the upside, Gold prices are likely to face resistance around Rs 50,785 - 50,900 - 50,990.

On Monday, MCX Gold August futures could look to seek support around Rs 50,550 - 50,500 - 50,420; whereas resistances for the commodity are seen around Rs 50,750 - 50,790 - 50,830.

Similarly, Gold Mini July futures are likely to seek support around Rs 50,555 - 50,510 - 50,445; whereas Gold on the upside is likely to face resistance around Rs 50,720 - 50,750 - 50,780 on Monday.

Silver

Bias: Range-bound

Last Close: Rs 59,749

Resistance: Rs 61,100

Support: Rs 58,500

Last week, the MCX Silver futures yet again bounced back sharply after testing support at the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, at Rs 50,800-odd level.

Silver prices have been treading in the broad range of Rs 58,500 to Rs 63,000 for the last two months even as the price-to-moving averages action remains in favour of the bears both on the daily and the weekly chart.

The key momentum oscillators on the daily and the weekly charts are also slightly negative, and it could perhaps be just a matter of time before we witness an eventual fall in Silver prices to Rs 53,700-odd levels - its 200-WMA.

For now, Rs 63,000-mark remains a major hurdle for Silver futures, with near-term resistance expected around Rs 61,100 to Rs 62,400.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver July futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 57,840 to Rs 61,660; with support likely around Rs 59,070 - 58,570 - 58,210. On the upside, Silver futures may face resistance around Rs 60,430 - 60,930 - 61,655.

On Monday, Silver futures are likely to seek support around Rs 59,465 - 59,260 - 58,960, while on the upside may face resistance around Rs 60,240 - 60,390 - 60,540.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini futures may seek support around Rs 59,670 - 59,300 - 59,145; while Silver could face resistance around Rs 60,465 - 60,620 - 60,775 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro futures could seek support around Rs 59,780 - 59,575 - 59,290 and might face resistance around Rs 60,520 - 60,665 - 60,810 today.