Bias for MCX Crude Oil turns marginally positive, can rally up to Rs 7,600

Meanwhile, the MCX Natural Gas futures need to conquer the key resistances at Rs 224 and Rs 232 for a meaningful pullback rally to emerge.

The MCX Crude Oil futures were seen trading closer to the higher-end of the anticipated trading band. In case, Crude Oil futures are able to conquer the near term resistances, a smart rally to Rs 7,400 or higher to Rs 7,600 seems possible.

Meanwhile, the Natural Gas futures were seen closing in on the 20-DMA after nearly a two-month gap. If Natural Gas prices are able to clear the 20-DMA hurdle, the commodity could potentially open doors for up to 20 per cent upside.

Crude Oil

Bias: Marginally Positive

Last close: Rs 6,646

Target: Rs 7,400; Rs 7,600

Resistance: Rs 6,675; Rs 6,770

Support: Rs 6,465; Rs 6,300

The MCX Crude Oil futures continue to remain range-bound with the commodity now seen testing resistance around its 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at Rs 6,675, above which the commodity is likely to counter resistance around the anticipated higher-end of the trading band at Rs 6,770.

Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, Crude Oil futures have failed to conquer its 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) now placed at Rs 6,660, since November 13, 2022. In case, the Crude Oil prices manage to clear this hurdle, than we may see expansion of the anticipated trading band on the upside. The potential upside targets would then be Rs 7,400 and Rs 7,600.

Select key momentum oscillators, both, on the daily and weekly chart are marginally positive. Hence, one cannot rule out the possibility of the range breakout on the upside.

Further, as per the monthly Fibonacci chart, after testing support at S3 (support) level at Rs 6,005, the energy-based commodity has now given a buy signal on the monthly scale. As per the monthly Fibonacci chart, Crude Oil futures can rally to Rs 6,750 - Rs 6,830 - Rs 6,920 on the upside in the remainder of this month.

In case of a dip, the MCX Crude Oil February futures are likely to find considerable support around Rs 6,465 and Rs 6,300 level.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil February futures are likely to seek support around Rs 6,585 - Rs 6,565 - Rs 6,545. On the upside, the Crude Oil prices could face resistance around Rs 6,680 - Rs 6,710 - Rs 6,745.

Natural Gas

Bias: Neutral

Last close: Rs 213.50

Support: Rs 201.30; Rs 194

Resistance: Rs 232.20; Rs 255

After days of consolidation around the Rs 200-mark, the MCX Natural Gas futures are now seen somewhat within striking distance of testing the 20-DMA, now placed at Rs 232.20. 

In case, the commodity is able to surpass the Rs 232-hurdle, a sharp pullback to Rs 287 level cannot be ruled out.

Select key momentum oscillators on the daily chart are seen recovering from the oversold zone. Thus, re-kindling hopes of a meaningful pullback.

As per the monthly Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas prices need to break and sustain above Rs 224, for the tide to turn favourable. As long as the commodity remains below Rs 224, the sluggish trend is likely to prevail.

As per the weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas February futures so far this week seems to have taken support around the weekly S1 - at Rs 198.80 level. However, it is yet to give a clear 'Buy' signal. Having said that, sustenance above Rs 208-level is the key for the remainder of the week.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas futures are likely to seek support around Rs 210.40 - Rs 208.10 - Rs 204.80; whereas, on the upside, the commodity may counter resistance around Rs 218.90 - Rs 220.50 - Rs 222.20.