MCX Gold likely to re-test Rs 58,000; Silver may drop to Rs 63,500

The MCX Gold futures are likely to find considerable support around Rs 56,235 level; the bias may turn cautious only on sustained trade below the same.

The MCX Gold and Silver futures seem to be placed on a divergent path currently following last week sharp fall. While Gold futures seem likely to retest the highs around Rs 58,000-mark, Silver futures are likely to extend losses in the coming trading sessions, indicate charts.

Gold

Bias: Positive

Last Close: Rs 56,560

Support: Rs 56,235

Resistance: Rs 57,730; Rs 58,100

The MCX Gold futures witnessed a severe fall in the last two days, partly on account of profit-taking in sync with global prices, and the F&O expiry. Gold futures dropped over 3.5 per cent in just two sessions, after hitting new life-time high at Rs 58,826.

Despite the sharp corrective move, the overall bias for Gold continues to remain bullish, with price-to-moving averages action favourable both on the daily and weekly charts.

As per the daily chart, MCX Gold April futures were seen testing the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) support at Rs 56,640-odd level. Sustained trade above the same can push back Gold prices to near about Rs 58,000-mark.

As per the quarterly Fibonacci chart, Gold futures have given a buy signal. In order to sustain the bullish bias, going ahead Gold prices need to sustain above Rs 56,235. Meanwhile, the monthly Fibonacci chart indicates, likely strong resistance around RS 57,730 to Rs 58,100 range.

Accordingly to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week, the MCX Gold April futures are likely to seek support around Rs 56,060 - Rs 55,700 - Rs 55,150, and on the upside the contract may face resistance around Rs 57,060 - Rs 57,425 - Rs 57,960.

On Monday, the MCX Gold April futures contract are likely to seek support around Rs 56,240 - Rs 56,000 - Rs 55,670, while on the upside the contract may counter resistance around Rs 56,870 - Rs 57,110 - Rs 57,450.

Similarly, the MCX Gold Mini February futures are expected to seek support around Rs 56,235 - Rs 56,000 - Rs 55,660, and on the upside the contract could face resistance around Rs 56,865 - Rs 57,100 - Rs 57,440 today.

Silver

Bias: Negative

Last Close: Rs 67,576

Target: Rs 64,000; Rs 63,500

Support: Rs 67,600; Rs 67,050

Resistance: Rs 70,000

Last week, the MCX Silver March futures broke sharply above the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, but failed to sustain above it. The contract reversed all its gains, and the very next day tested the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands.

The Bollinger Bands indicate a likely trading range of Rs 67,300 to Rs 70,100. However, select momentum oscillators are currently in favour of the bears, hence the commodity may witness some downward pressure in the near term. 

The Rs 67,300-level is likely to be the key support mark for Silver futures. Break and sustained trade below the same, could trigger a fall to Rs 63,500-odd level.

Bias on the weekly chart too is slightly negative, with Silver futures posting back-to-back losses in the last three straight weeks. As per the weekly chart, Silver futures may test Rs 63,650 - Rs 64,000 on the downside.

As per the quarterly Fibonacci chart, Silver futures seem to have counter resistance at Rs 72,800-level, and thus now indicating a possibility of testing lower levels at Rs 66,000 - Rs 63,500 - Rs 59,900 during the course of the current quarter.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Silver March futures, this week, may swing in a broad range of Rs 64,260 to Rs 70,890, with support likely around Rs 66,400 - Rs 65,530 - Rs 64,900. On the upside, the counter is likely to face resistance around Rs 68,750 - Rs 69,625 - Rs 70,250.

On Monday, Silver March futures are likely to seek support around Rs 66,880 - Rs 66,370 - Rs 65,630, while on the upside the contract may counter resistance around Rs 68,270 - Rs 68,780 - Rs 69,525.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini February futures could seek support around Rs 67,125 - Rs 66,660 - Rs 65,980; whereas on the upside the Mini contract may face resistance around Rs 68,400 - Rs 68,865 - Rs 69,550 today.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro February futures are likely to seek support around Rs 67,100 - Rs 66,635 - Rs 65,950; whereas the contract could face resistance around Rs 68,385 - Rs 68,855 - Rs 69,540 on Monday.