MCX Crude Oil remains range-bound; Natural Gas can bounce back to Rs 255

The MCX Natural Gas futures need to sustain above Rs 209-level, break and sustained trade above Rs 224 can trigger a rally towards Rs 255.

The MCX Crude Oil futures continue to remain range-bound, with near resistance seen in the range of Rs 6,381 - Rs 6,420 range. On sustained trade above the same, Crude Oil futures can rally towards the higher-end of the anticipated trading range. 

Meanwhile, Natural Gas futures are looking to bounce back from oversold territory. The commodity needs to sustain above Rs 209, for a potentially rally towards Rs 255 in the near term.

Crude Oil

Bias: Range-bound

Last close: Rs 6,363

Anticipated Range: Rs 6,100 - Rs 6,750

Resistance: Rs 6,381; Rs 6,420

The MCX Crude Oil futures once again bounced back after testing support at the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. The lower-end of the Bollinger Bands indicate support at Rs 6,100-level. Crude Oil dipped to a low of Rs 6,008 on Monday, but managed to close at Rs 6,132.

On the following day, MCX Crude Oil futures were seen testing resistance around the 50-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at Rs 6,381. The energy-based commodity needs to clear hurdle at Rs 6,380 and Rs 6,420, in order to rally towards the higher-end of the anticipated trading band at Rs 6,750-odd level.

Failure to sustain above Rs 6,420 on a consistent basis, could lead to a re-test of the lower-end of the anticipated trading range. A clear directional move can be expected only on a decisive break of the Rs 6,100 - Rs 6,750 trading range.

According to the monthly Fibonacci chart, Crude Oil prices took support at the S3 (support) at Rs 6,005, and then pulled back. The commodity now needs to sustain above Rs 6,300, while fresh strength can be expected on crossover of Rs 6,463.

As per the weekly chart, the commodity is within striking distance of its weekly R3 (resistance) placed at Rs 6,385. As and when, Crude Oil prices conquer this level; the overall bias for the remainder of the week shall be bullish with a stop at Rs 6,200. 

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil February futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 6,435 - Rs 6,460 - Rs 6,480. On the downside, the Crude Oil contract can seek support around Rs 6,290 - Rs 6,270 - Rs 6,245.

Natural Gas

Bias: Neutral

Last close: Rs 213.20

Support: Rs 201.30; Rs 194

Resistance: Rs 224; Rs 255

The MCX Natural Gas futures rose over 6 per cent on Tuesday, its biggest single-day gain since January 12, 2023. In the last seven straight weeks, the commodity has plummeted 63 per cent, and seen trading considerably below key moving averages both on the daily and weekly charts.

Select key momentum oscillators are attempting to bounce back from oversold zone. In case, the pullback does materialize, Natural Gas futures can potentially rally to Rs 255 - i.e. near its 20-DMA. Having said that, the commodity needs to break and sustain above Rs 224 for a meaningful pullback rally.

On the downside, the near multiple lows around the Rs 200-mark should provide some support to the energy-based commodity.

As per the weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas February futures so far this week have given a minor buy signal. The overall bias for the remainder of the week may remain positive as long as the commodity sustains above Rs 208.90, below which it may re-test Rs 201-odd level.

On the upside, the commodity is likely to target Rs 218.50 and Rs 222.50 during the course of the week.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas futures are likely to seek support around Rs 210.50 - Rs 208.50 - Rs 205.50; whereas, on the upside, the commodity may counter resistance around Rs 218 - Rs 229.40 - Rs 221.