Near support for MCX Crude Oil seen at Rs 6,030; Natural Gas to test Rs 285

In case, the MCX Crude Oil futures fail to hold the support, the commodity could revisit its December lows of Rs 5,850 level.

The MCX Crude Oil futures have traded in a broad range of Rs 5,850 to Rs 6,700 in the last eight weeks. For now, the Rs 6,030 level is the near term support. If the energy-based commodity manages to hold above it, Crude Oil prices can bounce back to Rs 6,400 level.

Meanwhile, Natural Gas futures are now within striking distance of the downside target of Rs 285 mentioned since the start of December 2022.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 6,205

Target: Rs 5,940; Rs 5,850; Rs 4,920

Support: Rs 6,030

Resistance: Rs 6,400; Rs 6,565

The MCX Crude Oil futures have been trading with a range of Rs 5,850 to Rs 6,700 since mid-November. The overall trend, basis on the price-to-moving averages action remains negative as Crude Oil trades below all the key moving averages.

The momentum oscillators like the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) too are favouring the bears on the daily chart.

Having said that, the near term support at the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, which the Crude Oil futures have so far been honouring stands at Rs 6030-odd level.

As long as this support is held, a pullback rally to Rs 6,400 its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) or higher towards the 50-DMA at Rs 6,565 level seems likely.

On the flip side, in case, the support gets violated and Crude Oil trades consistently below the Rs 6,030-level, the energy-based commodity could re-test its December lows at Rs 5,850.

On the weekly scale, the Crude Oil futures are seen consolidating around the 100-WMA, which now stands at Rs 6,374 for the last eight trading weeks. The overall bias seems negative, while select momentum oscillators are showing signs of exhaustion on the lower side.

The weekly chart continue to indicate, a test of its 200-WMA at Rs 4,920-odd level as possible downside target.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil January futures have given a marginal buy signal, thus indicating the possibility of a pullback to Rs 6,420 - Rs 6,660 during the course of the week.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil January contract may seek support around Rs 6,150 - Rs 6,135 - Rs 6,120. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 6,255 - Rs 6,275 - Rs 6,290. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 302.70

Target: Rs 285

Resistance: Rs 335; Rs 348

The MCX Natural Gas futures are now within striking distance of its downside target of the 200-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 285-odd level, mentioned in this article since December 07, 2022. READ HERE

The overall bias continues to remain negative, with a possibility of Natural Gas futures further falling below the 100-WMA. The monthly chart indicates support at Rs 282-odd level, below which the next support is seen at Rs 237 level.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, on consistent trade below the Rs 300-mark, the MCX Natural Gas January futures could slide to Rs 288 - Rs 278.60 - Rs 269.30 on the downside this week. On the upside, the commodity is expected to face strong resistance around Rs 335 - Rs 348.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the Natural Gas January futures may seek support around Rs 289.70 - Rs 285.70 - Rs 281.70; whereas, on the upside, the energy-based commodity is likely to counter resistance around Rs 310.20 - Rs 315.70 - Rs 323.70.