As per the current medium-term fiscal policy, which is part of the 2019-20 interim budget, the fiscal deficit target for 2019-20 is 3.4%, and 3% for both 2020-21 and 2021-22
Probably in August. We can argue whether RBI is dovishly neutral or neutrally dovish but the telltale signs of at least one more rate cut are strewn all over the policy statement
Despite the fact that the RBI has now cut the repo rate by 50bps since August 2018, it is clear that the cost of funding for the broader economy seems to be trending upwards
The Reserve Bank may have a more optimistic view on inflation for the year even, though it has also recognised the risk factors
Besides a normal monsoon, the inflation path, according to the RBI, will be shaped by five factors
Beyond the near term, several uncertainties cloud the inflation outlook, said RBI
It was the first back-to-back rate cut by the central bank since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was formed in late 2016.
Inflation has remained below the RBI's 4% target for seven straight months
The economy needs to have grown just above 6% in the January-March quarter to meet the government's estimate of 7% expansion for the 2019 fiscal year that ended on March 31
The Reserve Bank of India should instead consider cutting the cash reserve ratio, a move it last resorted to six years ago
The former governor currently heads a central bank-appointed panel, which is studying how much of the RBI's surplus capital can be transferred to the government
Shaktikanta Das, the new RBI governor, has been trying to nudge bankers to lower lending rates, holding meetings with bank chiefs last month to discuss the monetary policy transmission
For one thing, central banks are poor forecasters
Consumer-price growth reached 2.05 per cent in January, well below the Reserve Bank of India's medium term target of 4 per cent
RBI now expects inflation at 2.8 per cent in Q4FY19 and 3.2-3.4 per cent in H1FY20
Either the cut had been discounted, or smart money doesn't see the stimulus as adequate
Making more credit available more cheaply is vital for Modi, who wants to please businesses, farmers and individual borrowers
The rate cut will benefit Modi's government as it will boost economic growth and lending to small businesses, according to Ashwani Mahajan, a leader of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh
The yield on the most-traded 2028 sovereign bonds fell just seven basis points, the rupee eked out a gain and the main stocks gauge closed flat after the 25 bps rate cut
However, a point to note is that banks seldom pass on the entire rate cut