In our view, the MPC is likely to deliver a 50 bps increase in the repo rate (currently at 4.9 per cent), for both global and domestic reasons
MPC may front-load rate hikes to tame inflation, say economists
If the inflation remains above 6% on average for the next three months, the RBI will have to explain to the govt in writing the reasons for its failure to keep the rate of price rise in check
With front-loaded rate hikes by the US Fed, the US dollar will remain relatively strong in the immediate term
According to the July Bulletin article, the current level of reserves were equivalent to 9.5 months of imports projected for 2022-23
Electricity was the biggest driver of industrial output, rising 23.5%. Manufacturing output grew by 20.6%, while mining output grew by 10.9%
While the govt has introduced windfall tax and export curbs to arrest runaway prices, a lot depends on how the monsoon pans out this season
Inflation as measured by the CPI index stood at 7.04 in May 2022, higher than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) comfort zone of 2 - 6 per cent
Failure to keep inflation between 2-6% for three straight quarters will require RBI Governor to explain to FinMin why target was missed, and steps MPC will take to achieve it going forward
It should be followed and communicated properly
Either inflation has to come down on its own or we will have to raise the rate, or it will be a combination of the two, says MPC member Varma
In a chat with Business Standard's Manojit Saha, external MPC member Jayant R Verma said that the country will have to tolerate a modest growth sacrifice now as the RBI fights inflation. Listen in
There are two insurmountable hurdles in the path of RBI's independence on monetary policy. These hurdles make committees redundant
The RBI, however, cannot use the growth argument to justify inflation
The rate-setting committee has increased the policy repo rate by 90 basis points in May and June, to 4.9 per cent
Central bank has to target inflation but with 'awareness of nuances',' she says in interview.
CPI inflation was 7.04% in May. In its June policy review, the MPC raised repo rate by 50 bps to 4.9%, taking the total tally of rate hikes since May to 90 bps
'Improving bounce-rate trajectory suggests slippages, credit cost will descend in FY23'
During the gradual transition to a neutral stance, maybe over the next couple of months, liquidity management will play an important role in transitioning the WACR closer to the repo rate
Consumer price index-based inflation, the yardstick of the RBI in monetary policy making, was, on average, above 6 per cent during the January-March quarter