RBI MPC preview: Das and Co may hike repo rate by 25-50 bps in August

If the inflation remains above 6% on average for the next three months, the RBI will have to explain to the govt in writing the reasons for its failure to keep the rate of price rise in check

While global commodity prices are falling on fears of a recession in the advanced world that may dampen the retail price inflation, part of it is likely to be negated by the impact of a depreciating rupee against the dollar. On the other hand, growth impulses on at least the industrial production front are still fragile.

For instance, Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel earlier this month but again rose over $100 later. Its futures for September fell for the fourth consecutive day to $102.72 a barrel on early Monday. The prices fell on worries that the Federal Reserve