Page 4 - Consumer Sentiment Indicator

An IT, ITeS labour conundrum

The top 10 companies account for about 91 per cent of all employment among listed IT and/or ITeS firms and they make 92.4 per cent of all wage payments to them

Households cautiously optimistic

The index of consumer sentiments scaled up by a handsome 7.9 per cent in September

Employment increases in rural India

In all the major labour market metrics, it is rural India that shows big improvements. Labour conditions improved in urban India also but not as much as they did in rural India

An incomplete and exhausted recovery

In August 2021, seventeen months after that draconian lockdown of April 2020, employment continues to remain lower than it was in 2019-20

Middle-class rural India holds a promise

Unless a disruption erupts again, rural India seemed poised to help a recovery in consumer demand

From farms to the kitchen sink

Excess or seasonal labour released from agriculture usually finds its way to construction sites. In the circumstances labour seems to have found employment in the household sector

Sticky, low consumer sentiments could spoil recovery

The persistence of poor consumer sentiments has ramifications on the sustainability of India's recovery from the sharp fall in 2020-21

Women need a better deal

The literature, say the authors, has focused on supply-side constraints that prevent women from entering the labour markets

Sentiments recovery lags in middle-income households

While the recovery in sentiments in July is impressive, it needs better traction in the critical income groups

Migration from factories to farms, a sign of distress

The government's Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) report shows a sharp increase in employment in agriculture from 42.5% of the total employment in 2018-19 to 45.6% in 2019-20

Consumer sentiments improve in July

The July recovery in consumer sentiments is not only substantial but it is also spread evenly and robustly across regions

Employment recovery expected in July

But, the recovery was incomplete because the employment rate, which is the working age population that is employed, never repaired with its pre-Covid levels

Hope floats on rural recovery

The recent improvement in consumer sentiment is almost entirely a rural India story

Disproportionate fall in urban male jobs

Arguably, urban male jobs are the better quality jobs and their disproportionate loss could imply a greater fall in income than witnessed so far

Subdued sentiments threaten recovery

The index of consumer sentiments fell by 1.5 per cent in June 2021 after having fallen by 10.8 per cent in May and 3.8 per cent in April 2021

Covid leaves a lasting impact

India's problem is less with the unemployment rate and much more with the labour participation rate and the employment rate. The lasting impact of Covid is a much smaller worker participation rate

Mobility is not enough

It is possible that the mobility indices have moved because of the relaxations. Labour participation rates have improved

Employment rate continues to fall

Employment has been falling since January 2021 when it had touched a recent peak of 400.7 million. It has fallen in each of the four months since then

Can the rich help?

The recovery cannot be investments-led because most enterprises are nursing excess capacities

Double-digit unemployment rate makes a return

The unemployment rate touched 14.5 per cent in the week ended May 16, 2021