China's marriage rate hits 40-year low in 2024, deepening population woes

China recorded its lowest number of new marriages in four decades in 2024, highlighting the country’s deepening demographic challenges, including a declining birth rate and shrinking population. According to data from the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs, only 6.10 million couples registered their marriages last year, marking a sharp 20.5 per cent drop from 2023.

 

This is the lowest number since 1980, reflecting shifting social attitudes and economic concerns that have discouraged young people from marriage and, subsequently, starting families.

 

At the same time, the number of divorces in China edged up by 1.1 per cent to 2.82 million in 2024, despite the overall drop in marriage registrations.

  

Declining marriages signal falling birth rates

Demographers warn that China’s declining marriage rate will have long-term consequences for its birth rate. Given that most births in China occur within marriage, this downward trend in marriage rates is expected to push birth figures even lower in 2025.

 

China’s demographic crisis is driven by multiple factors, including a shrinking population of women of childbearing age, changing social attitudes towards marriage, and economic pressures that make young people hesitant to settle down. Despite government efforts to promote marriage and childbirth, many young Chinese are delaying or avoiding marriage due to career ambitions, financial constraints, and concerns over the cost of raising children. 

'Dragon year' sees birth rate rebound in 2024

In a rare uptick, China recorded 9.54 million births in 2024, up from 9.02 million the previous year. Experts attribute this increase to the rise in marriages in 2023 and the fact that 2024 was the year of the dragon, considered auspicious in Chinese culture.

 

Many couples reportedly timed their pregnancies to give birth to a "dragon baby," believed to bring good fortune in the culture, according to one report by the South China Morning Post.

 

However, demographers predict that this temporary rebound is unlikely to continue, with birth figures expected to decline again in 2025.

 

Policy challenges and govt interventions

China has introduced various measures to encourage marriage and childbirth, but these have had limited impact.

 

In October 2024, the State Council outlined 13 specific measures to address challenges related to childbirth, child care, and the social environment. This included:

 

Inclusion in maternity insurance: Flexible workers and rural migrants who participate in urban workers' medical insurance will be included in the maternity insurance programme.

 

Workplace leave policies: Authorities are urged to implement maternity, paternity, childbirth reward, and child care leave policies to support new parents.

 

Childbirth subsidy system: A new system will provide childbirth subsidies, along with increased personal income tax reliefs.

 

Medical insurance for labor pain relief: Labour pain relief and assisted reproductive technology services will now qualify for reimbursement under medical insurance.

 

Health education and early care: Efforts will increase health education for adolescents to prevent unintended pregnancies and improve early-pregnancy and abortion care services.

 

Pediatric resource expansion: More resources will be allocated to pediatric care, with efforts to balance the distribution of services across regions and focus on community-level access.

 

Child care services accessibility: Child care centers will be established at the prefecture and city levels, with facilities planned alongside new communities.

 

Housing support for larger families: Localities may raise housing loan limits for families with multiple children to help them buy homes.

 

China’s population entered a decline phase in 2022, with 14 per cent of the population aged 65 or older. Nearly 300 million citizens are over 60, a number projected to exceed 400 million by 2033 and 500 million by 2050, making seniors nearly 35 per cent of the population, the state media had said at the time.

 

Over the last decade, China has gradually relaxed its family planning policies, allowing more children per family. These changes include permitting a second child since 2013, two children since 2016, and supporting a third child in 2021.