When is it time to change your celebrity?

I have been rather busy over the past few weeks. The think-tank that I run on “celebrities as human brands” has been inundated with one nervous question from over a dozen clients: Is it time to change my brand’s celebrity?

The question has largely been triggered by the recent downturn in the fortunes of a number of celebrities who, until not very far back, were seen to be almost infallible, and too big to fail.

Virat Kohli, in the last one year has been dethroned as India’s captain across all three formats. And, he is facing a batting drought. Before Edgbaston, in his last 14 Tests, comprising 25 innings, the returns for Virat have been unbelievably sparse: 652 runs at an average of 26.08, and his highest score was 74. The just concluded IPL, though, was not too bad — Virat scored 505 runs in 16 matches at an average of 45.90. He managed three 50s notching 35 fours and 23 sixes in total. Yet, the 30-odd brands that he endorses are nervous. In fact, very nervous.

Akshay Kumar’s Samrat Prithviraj was apparently made on a budget of Rs 300 crore. The film’s total earnings may well end at Rs 75-80 crore in India and Rs 85-90 crore worldwide, making it one of the biggest flops of 2022. The superstar’s Bachchhan Paandey too tanked — made on a budget of over Rs 150 crore, it brought in just Rs 50 crore. The lean patch actually goes back a little longer, with 2020 seeing Laxmii and Bell Bottom not delivering. Only his Sooryavanshi did well in 2021. Akshay too has about 30 brand endorsements. His backers too are asking the inevitable question: Is Akshay done and over?

There’s been more bad news on the celebrity front. Ranveer Singh’s 83 was at best a lukewarm success. His Jayeshbhai Jordaar has been a super-flop — it just managed an opening day collection of Rs 3.25 crore and a first week harvest of a puny Rs 14.95 crore. Tiger Shroff’s Heropanti 2 was a box office disaster with total collections of just Rs 24.35 crore. Ranveer has 45 endorsements; Tiger has over a dozen. No wonder advertisers are worried.

Advertisers are asking if the era of the dominant, big screen superstar or super captain is now over. Are we headed to a more broad-based democracy in celebrity choice? After all, Kartik Aaryan’s Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 delivered an opening weekend box office collection of Rs 55.96 crore and ended up with gross collections of Rs 185.57 crore — a smashing performance, to say the least. Similarly, the sometimes-on-sometimes-off Rishabh Pant scored a brilliant 146 at Birmingham over the last weekend and India’s newly minted Test captain Jasprit Bumrah, batting at No. 10, created a new world record by smashing 29 runs off an over from Stuart Broad. Are these the new celebrities that today deserve more attention from brands?

When is it time to change your celebrity? When the incumbent is visibly starting to show a downward spiral? Well, that’s too simplistic. And obvious.

Then what? The unfortunate thing with most brands is that they do not actually use any empirical research in the selection of celebrities. Much of it is gut feel, and feel good. Most promoter families land up at shoots with all of mama-chacha-bhanja-bhatija and other brethren in tow. It is a sort of cumulative family high and a show of one-ness with the celebrity as the entire parivaar lines up for pictures for Insta and Facebook. Multinat managers are no different. Except that the bragging rights get extended to LinkedIn. And the celebrity is used as the brand’s RTB (reason to believe) in all PPTs made to the board.

In Virat’s case, it has been very apparent that he has hit an arid patch. That too for the past two years. But brands persisted with him, in the vain hope that he would bounce back. But so far the confidence seems somewhat misplaced. In the case of Akshay too, the poor performance of Laxmii and Bell Bottom should have set off alarm bells in 2020 itself. Even his Atrangi Re had a very tepid OTT reception. But Akshay’s brands continued to exude trust and confidence. The issue really is about watching out for early warning signals and heeding them.

That does not of course mean that you jettison the celebrity on seeing the first signs of trouble. But it would certainly help to have a sentiment track being done on the celebrity at well-defined time intervals. Very few brands actually do it. Most often they grudge the expense, which is teeny-weeny compared to the enormous celebrity fees. Feedback obtained is mostly hearsay from trade, consumers and increasingly social media. These may all be valid listening posts, but a well-structured, well thought-through research can provide clues for decision-making much ahead of the actual down slide. 

The writer is managing director of Rediffusion