Key levels: Gold needs to sustain above Rs 50,700; Silver above Rs 54,100

The MCX Gold futures seem to be taking support around the 200-DMA, on the upside sustained trade above the 20-DMA at Rs 50,700 can trigger a fresh rally.

After testing the 200-DMA support twice in the last two weeks, the MCX Gold August futures may look to bounce back, provided the Gold prices manage to sustain above the 20-DMA at Rs 50,700. 

Here's what to expect for Gold and Silver futures this week: 

Gold

Bias: Neutral

Last Close: Rs 50,680

Support: Rs 49,800

Resistance: Rs 51,250

The MCX Gold futures for the second straight week bounced back after testing its 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average). The 200-DMA stands at Rs 49,826, followed by near support at the lower-end of the Bollinger Band around Rs 49,690.

On the daily chart, Gold futures are currently testing resistance at its 20-DMA placed at Rs 50,700-odd level. Sustained trade above the 20-DMA can trigger a rally towards Rs 51,250 - its 50-DMA.

The key momentum oscillators on the daily charts are in neutral mode. The ADX index is at a low point, indicating lack of strength in the current market direction. The Stochastic Slow and the MACD are showing signs of a possible rebound, while the RSI is yet to give a clear indication.

According to the monthly Fibonacci chart, MCX Gold futures seem to be taking support around the S2 monthly level at Rs 49,694 and have further turned positive on a month-till-date basis. Going ahead this month, Gold futures have near resistance at Rs 51,880, above which prices can spurt to Rs 51,150 - Rs 51,340 - Rs 51,535.

As per the weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Gold August futures this week may move in a broad range of Rs 49,960 to Rs 54,400. Gold futures may look to seek support around Rs 50,425 - 50,235 - 50,100; whereas on the upside, Gold prices may face resistance around Rs 50,935 - 51,125 - 51,400.

On Monday, MCX Gold August futures are likely to seek support around Rs 50,560 - 50,470 - 50,340; whereas Gold futures may face resistance around Rs 50,890 - 50,955 - 51,020.

Similarly, Gold Mini August futures may seek support around Rs 50,620 - 50,530 - 50,410; whereas on the upside the commodity might face resistance around Rs 50,935 - 51,000 - 51,060 on Monday.

Silver

Bias: Negative

Last Close: Rs 55,100

Resistance: Rs 56,700

Support: Rs 54,100

The MCX Silver futures continued to drift lower for the sixth straight week, and bias remain negative as the commodity trades below its key moving averages, with the price-to-moving averages action also in favour of the bears both on the daily and the weekly charts.

As per the daily charts, Silver futures have near support at Rs 54,130 - its lower end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart, and near resistance at its trend line resistance at Rs 56,700.

On the weekly charts, Silver futures are currently testing support around its 200-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) placed at Rs 54,100. The commodity hit a low of Rs 54,166 last week.

In case, Silver futures are able to hold on to this support, a pullback rally to Rs 57,350-odd level cannot be ruled out. On the flip side, break and trade below Rs 54,100, can trigger a fall towards Rs 52,675 - its 50-MMA (Monthly Moving Average).

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver September futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 53,750 to Rs 56,440; with support likely around Rs 54,620 - 54,270 - 54,000. On the upside, Silver futures may face resistance around Rs 55,580 - 55,930 - 56,185.

On Monday, Silver futures are likely to seek support around Rs 54,850 - 54,770 - 54,690, while on the upside the commodity might face resistance around Rs 55,350 - 55,430 - 55,510.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini futures may seek support around Rs 55,600 - 55,535 - 55,465; while Silver could face resistance around Rs 56,040 - 56,105 - 56,170 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro futures could seek support around Rs 55,650 - 55,585 - 55,520 and may face resistance around Rs 56,075 - 56,140 - 56,205 today.