MCX Gold futures trade near 200-DMA; Silver likely to test 200-WMA

The MCX Gold futures may test its support at the 200-DMA placed at Rs 49,750, while Silver futures may dip towards the 200-WMA placed at Rs 53,900-odd level.

The MCX Gold August futures traded with a negative bias for the last two straight weeks, and have shed a solid 3.5 per cent during the period. Gold futures are now within striking distance of some of its technical levels both on the daily and the weekly charts.

Whereas, Silver futures have logged losses in the five straight weeks, and are also near the major support of its 200-WMA.

Here's what to expect going ahead:

Gold

Bias: Cautious

Last Close: Rs 50,103

Support: Rs 49,750

Resistance: Rs 50,800

The MCX Gold futures are trading fairly closer to its key long-term (200) Daily Moving Average) placed at Rs 49,750. The support level is just a tad below its lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart at Rs 49,850. Thus, indicating the possibility of significant support in the range of Rs 49,850 - Rs 49,750 in the coming trading sessions.

However, given the fact that select momentum oscillators on the daily charts have turned negative, a break of 200-DMA cannot be ruled out. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence), in particular, has given a negative divergence.

In case the 200-DMA fails to hold, the next major support is at 50-WMA placed at Rs 49,250 level.

On the upside, the commodity is likely to face considerable resistance around Rs 50,800, which is where the 20-DMA and 50-DMA coincide.

According to weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Gold August futures this week may move in a broad range of Rs 49,500 to Rs 50,715. Gold futures may look for support around Rs 49,885 - 49,725 - 49,610; whereas on the upside, Gold prices are may face resistance around Rs 50,320 - 50,480 - 50,600.

On Monday, MCX Gold August futures are likely to seek support around Rs 50,030 - 49,980 - 49,900; whereas Gold futures may face resistance around Rs 50,175 - 50,225 - 50,300.

Similarly, Gold Mini August futures may seek support around Rs 50,110 - 50,055 - 49,980; whereas on the upside the commodity might face resistance around Rs 50,260 - 50,315 - 50,395 on Monday.

Silver

Bias: Negative

Last Close: Rs 55,608

Resistance: Rs 58,000

Support: Rs 53,900

The MCX Silver futures have now ended with losses for the last five straight weeks. In the process, the commodity has plunged over 10 per cent during the period, from levels of near 62,000 to sub Rs 56,000.

Silver futures are now within striking distance of its major support of 200-WMA placed at Rs 53,900-odd level, below which the next significant support is at Rs 52,690 - its 20-MMA (Monthly Moving Average).

Currently, the momentum both on the weekly and monthly charts seem to be strongly in favour of the bears. Thus, further losses for the commodity seem likely. Below, Rs 52,690, the next significant support is at considerable distance at Rs 46,000-odd level.

However, on the daily chart, Silver futures which have been trending lower for the last five weeks seem to be trading in oversold territory. The MCX Silver futures seem to be looking to seek support around the low-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart around Rs 54,650-level.

In case, the commodity is able to hold above Rs 54,650, a pullback to Rs 58,000-odd level seems likely.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver September futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 53,840 to Rs 57,380; with support likely around Rs 54,980 - 54,515 - 54,175. On the upside, Silver futures may face resistance around Rs 56,240 - 56,700 - 57,040.

On Monday, Silver futures are likely to seek support around Rs 55,330 - 55,125 - 54,825, while on the upside the commodity might face resistance around Rs 55,885 - 56,090 - 56,390.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini futures may seek support around Rs 55,855 - 55,660 - 55,380; while Silver could face resistance around Rs 56,380 - 56,575 - 56,860 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro futures could seek support around Rs 55,855 - 55,690 - 55,410 and may face resistance around Rs 56,400 - 56,600 - 56,875 today.