People power brought down the Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka. But what's next?

Protest movements produce powerful symbols. Images of the citizens of Sri Lanka storming the presidential residence of the man who steered their country into financial ruin and then refused to step down sent a pointed message. When they started swimming in Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s pool, cooking in his kitchen and working out in the official gym, he had to know it was over for his family’s reign of economic destruction. 

For the first time since demonstrations began in March in the capital, Colombo, soldiers were seen joining the protests. So too were the Buddhist monks who had previously helped propel the Rajapaksas to government. When the military starts to turn against the strongman who was once defense secretary, it’s clear the power has finally shifted — though they are still out in force on the streets and there’ve been reports of violence against protesters and journalists that’s put some in hospital. That the weekend was dominated by reports the Rajapaksas were planning on fleeing the country was not surprising given the renewed ferocity of the protesters now driven not just by anger but desperation. The president left his residence before it was seized and his whereabouts are, so far, unknown. He says he’s preparing to resign on Wednesday. His citizens say that’s not soon enough. 

Sri Lanka has been in financial crisis for months. There is no fuel, essential medicines are either unavailable or in short supply and food inflation is running at close to 80%. Initial talks with the International Monetary Fund wrapped up on June 30, but there is no immediate resolution to the foreign exchange crisis that has brought the nation to a standstill. About a quarter of the 22 million population is unsure of where their next meal will come from, the World Food Program said on July 6.

The people have spoken. They have been telling their government for months to resign: The signs at the permanent protest site along Colombo’s waterfront overwhelmingly read “Gota go home.” When former leader Ranil Wickremesinghe stepped in two months ago to steady the administration (beginning his sixth term as prime minister) and start negotiating in earnest with the IMF, the people were not convinced. And they were right — whatever answers he may have had, he was viewed as part of the political establishment that had led Sri Lanka to this point. Hours after Wickremesinghe said on Saturday he too was prepared to leave his post, protesters set fire to his private residence, a move widely condemned by the broader civilian uprising.

Traveling through the Rajapaksa’s stronghold of Hambantota last month in the island’s deep south, it was clear then that even the family’s diehard supporters were losing faith. Gotabaya’s decision to ban the import of fertilizers last year cost farmers at least two harvests and left them with little means of survival. It plunged the country into a food crisis from which it will take years to recover.  

So what next? The IMF said it hoped for a resolution to Sri Lanka’s political turmoil to allow a resumption of bailout talks after the fury of Saturday’s protests. The US called on the parliament “to approach this juncture with a commitment to the betterment of the nation — not any one political party,” a State Department spokesperson said during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to the region. The problem is, only the protesters seem to be moving with any sense of urgency. Both Gotabaya and Wickremesinghe should stop prevaricating; parliament should appoint an all-party cabinet that includes technocrats with deep economic experience to guide the nation out of this government-induced emergency.

They need to do this quickly — before a potentially dangerous power vacuum develops that could allow extremist groups to exploit the instability. It is only three years since the Easter Sunday bombings in Colombo that were claimed by supporters of the Islamic State. Churches and luxury hotels were targeted, killing nearly 270 people and crippling the tourism industry.

If there’s one thing these protesters have shown, it is that the Rajapaksas can be defeated. That the corruption and human rights abuses they are both famous and feared for, can be overcome, however long that process may be. It’s important to remember that beyond their grave economic mismanagement, Gotabaya’s administration, and his brother Mahinda’s before him, repeatedly blocked any legal avenues for accountability over the grave abuses linked to the 26-year civil war that ended under their watch in 2009. Instead, as Human Rights Watch notes, victims of past abuses, their families, journalists and human rights defenders have endured surveillance and intimidation. Muslims, Tamils, and other minorities have faced discrimination and threats. Many have been severely beaten. Some have disappeared. The brothers have repeatedly denied any link to the violence.

What’s different now is that all these groups have come together to oust the Rajapaksas. They have rejected family’s brand of populist authoritarianism that relied on the support of Sinhalese Buddhists, who make up 75% of the population. They are united in their desire for a peaceful and prosperous Sri Lanka that is able to resist politicians’ attempts to divide communities and incite violence. It’s time for their own political leaders — and the international community — to heed their call and help them as they forge a new future for their country.