Overall kharif sowing improves even as paddy and arhar remain muted

Experts say a fall in paddy output could hugely impact cereal prices going forward as wheat stocks in central pool aren't enough to quell any surge in prices

A month and half into the 2022 southwest monsoon season, the total acreage of kharif crops went past last year's level for the first time in this season on July 15. However, paddy and arhar continued to lag among major crops.

Data showed that acreage under paddy, the biggest food grain grown during the season, was almost 17 per cent lower than the same period last year, while the area under arhar, which is among the main pulses grown during the kharif season, was almost 18 per cent lower.

Experts said that paddy acreage is lower than last year due to below par southwest monsoon over the main growing belts of eastern India (Odisha, Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, WB and parts of Chhattisgarh).

A fall in paddy output could have serious repercussions for cereal prices in the months ahead, as wheat stocks in the Central pool aren't enough to quell any surge in prices, experts said.

A big drop in rice acreage could also force the government to review the open export policy currently in place.

So far, the data has shown that paddy has been sown on around 12.85 million hectares, or 32 per cent of the normal area of 39.70 million hectares.

Arhar has been sown on 2.58 million hectares, (55 per cent of the normal area).

Market sources said the near absence of monsoon in June--the peak month for arhar sowing--over the main growing areas has led to a drop in acreage under the lentil.

Among other main crops, the land under cotton, soybean, groundnut and moong was more than last year due to strong rains over the central, western and southern parts of the country the past few days.

“Soybean sowing has been completed in most of the areas barring some that have received late or excessive rains. There have been no major complaints of low germination. However, in some districts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, soybean fields are facing water logging due to heavy rains and the crop might get damaged if the rains continue,” Indore-based Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said in a statement.

In the case of paddy, data shows that the cumulative rainfall in West Bengal between June 1 and July 15 is 24 per cent below normal. In Bihar it is 42 per cent lower, in Jharkhand it is 49 per cent below normal, while in UP the shortfall is a staggering 65 per cent.

In Odisha, cumulative rainfall finally turned 1 per cent above normal due to some revival in rains in the coastal parts the past few days.

However, hope seems to be on the horizon for the rice growing belts of east India and parched lands of North-West India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest forecast that rainfall is likely to increase over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Northeastern States from July 18 for five days, while it will go down over Konkan and Goa, Gujarat Region, Madhya Maharashtra and Saurashtra and Kutch from today (July 15).

In the latter it has been pouring heavily the past few days.