Page 15 - Economic Recovery

Best of BS Opinion: The Great Gatsby Curve, panned in pandemic time & more

Here are the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for Saturday

The Great Gatsby Curve: Will India be like East Asia or Latin America?

If India combines great inequality with poor inter-generation mobility, it risks becoming, not like East Asia with its rapid growth rates, but like under-performing Latin America, writes T N Ninan

United States first quarter GDP unchanged at robust 6.4% annual rate

The US economy grew at a robust annual rate of 6.4 per cent in the first three months of this year, unchanged from the government's initial estimate.

UBS warns of more downside risks to growth on longer lockdowns

The economy faces more downside risks now as economic disruptions arising from the second wave are likely to stabilise only from July, warned the Swiss brokerage USB Securities. Last month, the brokerage had cut its GDP forecast by 150 bps to 10 per cent for FY22, which though is much higher than the consensus projections by others with some pegging it at as low as 8 per cent. Though adverse impacts on sequential growth is less severe than in the June 2020 quarter when it plunged by 23.9 per cent, as lockdowns are more targeted and localised and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal now, still, it is increasingly possible that normalcy returns only by July as against our baseline assumption of June. This increases the downside risks to our FY22 growth estimate of 10 per cent, its India economist Tanvee Gupta Jain in a note on Thursday said without quantifying how much it will be. She bases her warnings to the UBS-India activity indicator that has slipped to 78.6

Govt assessing economic impact of second Covid wave for possible stimulus

The government has begun assessing the impact of the second wave of infections on different sectors and may look at providing support at an appropriate time to segments requiring fiscal help

Recovery tracker: Power generation lower than during May 2020 lockdown

This week power generation fell below the last year level indicating continued deceleration in economic activity from the lock­down

Fiscal vs monetary policy, under uncertainty

Heightened uncertainty from a second wave is likely to increase the relative efficacy of fiscal vis-a-vis monetary policy

Best of BS Opinion: A recovery interrupted, RBI's disclosure dilemma & more

Here are the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for Monday

Centre, states stare at Rs 2-trillion GST cess gap amid Covid-19

The GST compensation of states is expected to widen to Rs 2.5-3 trillion in FY22 as against the cess collection of Rs 1 trillion estimated in the Budget

Statsguru: Six charts explain why monsoon is so important for economy

An even more virulent second wave means that economic growth, income and employment will again depend on agriculture to a large extent

Focus on the pandemic, not the economy

The big lesson of the second wave is that India must stop trying to prioritise economic recovery over emergence from the pandemic - any such effort is destined to fail

Rationalise rates

GST Council must address the shortfall in collection

A recovery interrupted

This first of a two-part essay assesses the emerging economic fallout of the second wave

Base effect, recovery boosts India's engineering goods exports in April

India's engineering goods exports to 23 key markets, including the US, China and Germany recorded positive year-on-year growth in April 2021, EEPC India said on Saturday

April headline numbers deceptive; economy in trough, says ICRA report

Uptick in headline numbers of key economic indicators in April is due to the base effect: ICRA

Govt's fiscal deficit likely to be around 9% in FY21, say experts

Data to be released by month-end; FY22 gap may widen to 7.15% against BE of 6.8%, say experts

Govt's worry on corporation tax revenue front may worsen in coming years

Concern over a falling share of corporation tax revenue may get worse

Best of BS Opinion: China's scientific muscle, sovereign rating risk & more

Here are the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for Tuesday

Covid-19: The world economy is suddenly running low on everything

Surging corporate demand is upending global supply chains

Recovery tracker: Mobility dips, power generation falls under second wave

Retail and recreation visits are at their lowest in nearly a year