Usually, in the June quarter, the GDP shrinks by about 3-4 per cent compared to the previous quarter. This is because there is seasonality in the GDP series
Owners of capital have benefitted well in these very difficult times. But labour has not been as lucky
Fiscal 2019-20 ended with an employment rate of 39.4%. It fell to 27.2% in April 2020 but, it recovered 300 basis points to reach 30.2% in May
The real challenge is in raising the labour participation and employment rates
The labour participation rate in September at 40.7% was 199 basis points lower than the average labour participation rate of 42.7% in 2019-20
Employment and work are very closely related but the two are in fact, distinct
The fall in the unemployment rate seen in recent weeks is meaningless and misleading in the face of a falling labour participation rate and a falling trend in the employment rate
Employment in the category of white collar professional employees and other employees has been rising steadily since 2016 when the survey began tracking them
The damage is likely to be deeper, among industrial workers and also white-collar workers
In August, barring an exceptional spike in one week, the labour participation rate has been slipping
Slowly, the age profile of the workforce is shifting towards the relatively old workers
While informal jobs have returned, and even increased after being hit by the lockdown, formal jobs have not
The recovery is largely in informal jobs. The situation has worsened for the salaried class
But, its momentum could be petering out well before the recovery is complete
Employee Provident Fund data shows a sharp fall in new additions to subscriptions to the Fund in April 2020, the first complete month of the lockdown
Labour participation picked up smartly in the week ended July 19. At 41.7% it was heads and shoulders above the 40.4% recorded during the preceding two weeks
This is an outcome of the economic strategy adopted by the state government to tackle the Covid-19 crisis and the devastation caused by cyclone Amphan, Banerjee said
Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy shows full effect of shutdown in June quarter
The experience of the past three months provides proof that Indians do not protest loss of jobs. They just drop their rates and continue with their lives
The big gain in employment is happening in rural India and it might see bigger gains in the months to come or at least sustain the momentum