The House and Adani: Second half of Budget session will resume on March 14

Just when a controversy had broken out around the purchase of Rafale aircraft ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, psephologist and politician Yogendra Yadav sought to establish the conditions in which corruption allegations could become a factor in elections: “The history of Indian elections tells us that there are six conditions for corruption allegations to become a game changer. First, there should be a general context of public disquiet over corruption. Second, there should be a critical case that symbolises corruption. Third, some independent evidence should confirm the allegations. Fourth, the regime’s counter should not be plausible. Five, mass communication should take this to the public at large. Six, there should be a credible alternative for people to junk the regime. The Rafale case meets the first four Cs; everything now hinges on the last two.” Exactly which ingredient was missing needs analysis. But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) improved its electoral result.

As Parliament goes into its customary Budget session recess tomorrow (the two Houses will meet again on March 14) many Opposition and BJP leaders are asking themselves if this time around, ahead of the 2024 elections, history will repeat itself. Will the Adani crisis go away? Or will it persist as a factor influencing politics?
 

If the first half of the Parliament session is any indication, for the matter to have traction, BJP leaders will have to get a crash course on the allegations made by Hindenburg in its report and whether they loop back to the government. “We have no instructions. And this is a serious matter, so we can’t wing it,” said a senior BJP MP and former finance minister of a state. No senior BJP functionary was told by the party to come on television debates to rebut charges of cronyism. And with just a day to go for the recess, it is unlikely the BJP will mount this campaign in Parliament.
 

The government, as well as the party, is clear that even after that, there is no question of a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) into the matter. “We told them (the Opposition) that letting a debate take place is your best chance of exposing the connections. Twelve hours have been allocated for the discussion on the President’s address to the two Houses. You can attack all you want. The BJP has no instructions so it won’t say anything. You will have your say. But in the Congress, the response of a senior leader was ‘yahan to Shivji ki baraat hai’ (there are multiple opinions in our party),” said a senior BJP leader.
 

As parliamentary tactics go, initially the Opposition was indeed divided. While the Congress heckled the government and would not let the House function until the demand for a JPC was conceded, the Trinamool Congress wanted a discussion so that everything could be placed on record. The Aam Aadmi Party and K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) were keen to utilise the political momentum created by Adani to continue heckling and make their presence felt via television.
 

There was also no agreement on how the charges should be investigated. Though the Congress wanted a JPC, within the party there was doubt about what it could do with such a small number in the JPC (representation is on the basis of a party’s presence in Parliament) and hence many sought a judicial probe. The Trinamool Congress and Left disagreed and argued that a Supreme Court-monitored probe should be the demand. But that ship would appear to have sailed. Hearing a petition that called for the Supreme Court’s intervention in the row, Chief Justice D Y Chandrachud observed: “Do we intervene and have a mechanism to ensure this doesn’t happen again? We do not want to get into policy matters. That is for the government.”
 

“We have suggested an expert committee for the overall situation and examination if the Government of India is interested in this exercise,” he said, calling for the inclusion of a judge and domain experts. It is only the court’s “suggestion” and not an order, so the government can reject it on the grounds that appropriate agencies are looking at the matter and so no probe is needed.
 

What could the next moves be? The Trinamool Congress’ Derek O’Brien argued that the Opposition was on the same page when it came to strategy. “When it comes to tactics, there may be some options. But once the strategy is in place, tactics can be worked out,” he said.
 

But disruption or no disruption, the first part of the Budget session has not been the write-off that was expected. Parliamentary watchdog PRS says the Lok Sabha has worked around 76 per cent and the Rajya Sabha around 51 per cent. The Lok Sabha has worked 28.6 hours and Rajya Sabha 18.1 hours out of the 30 hours for each. Whether this will continue in the rest of the budget session remains to be seen.