Pitfalls in second-guessing markets

The crystal ball can never anticipate all big events that move the market, and impact economies and countries. And yet, we have an insatiable desire to lap up forecasts

I remember listening to a big shot at one of India’s largest corporate houses about India’s economic prospects in 2008; this was at the fag end of December 2007. With a ringside view of economic trends, flow of funds and business sentiment, he was extremely positive about 2008, knowing that tens of billion dollars were about to flow into infrastructure, real estate and other businesses. India will not be able to absorb the torrent of money that is headed our way, he said, especially from the Gulf countries, since oil prices had been high and petrodollars were looking for an