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China's trade contracted again in January and February as US and European demand weakened in the face of interest rate hikes, adding to pressure on official efforts to revive economic growth following the end of anti-virus controls. Exports sank 6.8 per cent from a year earlier to USD 506.3 billion, an improvement over December's 10.1 per cent decline, customs data showed Tuesday. Imports fell 10.2 per cent to USD 389.4 billion, deepening December's 7.3 per cent contraction. China's global trade surplus for the two months edged up 0.8 per cent over a year earlier to USD 116.9 billion. Forecasters expected trade to weaken as the likelihood of a recession in Western economies increased following rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to cool economic activity and record-setting inflation. We don't expect exports to rebound, Iris Pang of ING said in a report. That adds to complications for President Xi Jinping's government, which is trying to revive economic grow
A Wall Street brokerage has downplayed the slowdown fears arising after the poor December quarter data prints, saying the moderate numbers are due to the base effect and that the January data clearly show that domestic demand drivers are intact. According to Morgan Stanley India chief economist Upasana Chachra and her deputy Bani Gambhir, the apparent deceleration in the December quarter number come from the mixed trends in high-frequency domestic demand indicators coupled with a slowdown in external demand as visible from shrinking exports, creating fears of an impending growth slowdown. Accordingly, they choose to stand out, expecting a 6.2 per cent GDP growth in FY24 as against the 6 per cent consensus forecasts, reiterating their view that domestic demand is likely to sustain the growth momentum. While the budget has not offered a clear GDP growth number for next fiscal, saying it is likely to grow in 6.0 to 6.5 per cent range, the Reserve Bank in its latest assessment has ...