India's Growth Projection

Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022. "In the case of India, the upward revisions additionally incorporate the sharp increase in capital expenditure budget allocation to Rs 10 trillion (3.3 per cent of GDP) for fiscal year 2023-24, up from Rs 7.5 trillion for the fiscal year ending in March 2023," Moody's said while projecting a 70 basis points increase in 2023 real GDP growth at 5.5 per cent an

Commodity prices will raise total import bill and add to unfavourable developments in current account balance, it says

Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity. This will test the resilience of domestic demand," Crisil chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi said in a note. Aditi Nayar, his counterpart at Icra, in her report pencilled a 6.5 per cent growth in Q2 of the current fiscal, nearly half of the year-ago quarter when the economy had clipped at 12.7 per cent, but which is still a tad higher than the monetary policy committee's Septembe

Slashes it by 60 bps; says worst yet to come for world

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised downwards its growth projection for FY23 to 7.2 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier

In its first monetary policy announcement of 2022-23, the RBI projected inflation to be at 5.7 per cent this financial year. Real GDP growth for the year estimated at 7.2 per cent

Downward revision stems from India's economic recovery getting impacted due to spike in Covid-19 cases in May, the agency said

If the projections come out to be correct, India's economy would be the fastest growing large economy in both these years

A step jump in medium-term growth rates, of the kind projected, needs all four engines of the economy to be firing. But the govt seems to have bet on just two, writes T N Ninan

Deloitte says recovery depends on vaccine, spread of Covid cases

Says Indian economy could fare thrice as poorly as projected earlier in the wake of coronavirus-induced lockdowns and a decline in household income

EY's current assessment of India's 2020-21 real gross value added (GVA) growth is 1.9 per cent provided that India sticks to its infrastructure funding plans.

It retained its projection of Indian economy contracting by 5 per cent in the current fiscal

India's economic growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2020, a further deterioration from the already slowed growth of 4.1 per cent in 2019

While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, Covid-19 would impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown, the central bank has said