El Nino

The resilience of Indian agriculture to weather shocks has strengthened, but mitigating risks requires careful policy response

Skymet said that there is a 0% chance of excess rainfall in the upcoming monsoon season

Reservoir levels lower than last year but higher than 10-yr average; ample elbow room in grain storage for now

The El Nino phenomenon, which occurs normally after every three to five years, may impact the weather in India this year, thus affecting the agriculture sector

The data related to monsoon and crop production for the decade suggest that despite uneven monsoon rains over the years, Indian agricultural output has remained largely immune to rainfall patterns

A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months , according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement. However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said. The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said. The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July

Adverse agronomical conditions, excess channel inventory weigh on domestic market volume offtake

IMD predicts above-normal temperatures this year

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has asked officials to prepare a comprehensive mitigation plan due to the possibility of drought this year, an official said on Thursday. The official said Fadnavis cited media reports of the United States government's weather agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicating a possibility of 'El Nino' condition developing late summer. As per weather experts, an 'El Nino' condition is when surface water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average and the east winds get weaker, bringing about extremes that include flooding or drought. "There is likelihood of a drought situation this year and the government needs to be well prepared to ensure people's hardship is minimised," the official said. The directives came at the cabinet meeting earlier this week, he added.

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Rain patterns in India are also expected to get altered with the return of El Niño in 2023

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"The first half of the 2022 monsoon season is expected to fare better than the latter. Monsoon is likely to make a decent start during the onset month of June," Skymet said.

India's southwest monsoon this year is expected to be 'normal' at 100 per cent of the long period average

The latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts show that sea surface temperatures might further cool, enhancing the probability of La Niña after July

He said that IMD has impact-based forecast in all districts now

A strong El Nino could have an adverse impact on India's southwest monsoon that starts from June as almost 80% of El Nino years have seen 'below normal' rains

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Overall, the monsoon till August 30 has been 6% less than normal

Farmers are bracing up for short duration of agricultural crops this season following forecast of El Nino incidence resulting into low rainfalls and fear of crop damage during the second half of the four-month monsoon season this year.While announcing the forecast of 96 per cent of the Long Term Average (LPA) which means "normal", the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday feared occurrence of El Nino in August. This means, the rainfalls will remain below normal in the August - September period, the crucial stage of germination and crop development."Five - 10 per cent of diversion in favour of short duration crops is possible this season as farmers might be looking to mitigate the risk of crop damage in the later part of the monsoon season. However, farmers with limited alternatives will continue with normal season crops like earlier. Most importantly, the progress of rainfalls would determine the fate of kharif crops this season," said M K Dhanuka, Managing Director, ...