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The price of aluminium is likely to go up in the medium term due to factors like surge in demand, Crisil Research on Tuesday said. The price of the metal fell 45 per cent from the March 2022 peak to around 2,400 dollar per tonne now due to factors like lockdown in China. "Aluminium prices have likely bottomed out and should rise over the medium term, supported by two structural drivers: limited smelter capacity additions and uptick in demand," it said in a statement. Limited capacity additions over the next five years will be crucial to pick up in the prices of aluminium, it said. The demand for aluminium is likely to see a structural growth over the medium term on account of global green investments, including electric vehicles, solar panels and renewable energy grids, most of which have high intensity of aluminium use. "Green investments across major economies will lead to a strong uptick in demand for aluminium, but global capacity addition is expected to fall from 20 MT during
Closure of excess aluminium smelter capacities and a pick up in demand for the metal in the European markets would support higher prices in the rest of this fiscal.Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are ruling at multi-year highs of $2100 per tonne. An industry outlook report by Care Ratings has predicted average aluminium prices to hover in the range of $1900-2100 in the remainder of FY18."The crackdown on old, polluting smelters by the China government will see four million tonnes of aluminium capacity going offline this winter. That means 10 per cent of the aluminium production capacity in China. The cut down in production will buoy demand and support prices for aluminium through this fiscal", said an analyst.China is the largest producer of primary aluminium with a share of 54 per cent. Aluminium has continued its bull run with global prices rising by 23 per cent to $1961 per tonne in April-September compared with $1596 in the corresponding period of FY17. ...