Union Budget 2023: Experts don't expect surprises in social sector outlay

While experts believe that provision for various social schemes may go up, the sector is unlikely to see any major announcements

The upcoming Union Budget 2023 is unlikely to bring any major changes in social sector schemes. According to experts, while the budgetary provisions for various schemes and programmes under the social sector will increase, as part of the accounting process, this sector may not see any big announcements. Here are some of the tweaks experts expect for the social sector in Budget 2023.

Pensions for the informal sector

National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP), which includes old age pension, widow pension, pension for the disabled, National Family Benefit Scheme and Annapurna programme, aims to provide social assistance benefits to poor households. However, the government has not revised the assistance amount since 1995, when the programme was started.

According to Jawed Alam Khan, an expert on social sector programmes and responsiveness of budgets at the Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability (CBGA), there should be some hope from this budget in terms of increasing over all allocation and unit cost under pension schemes.

"The civil society has been demanding this for the past 17 years. Taking into account the cost of living and inflation rate today, the pension being offered by the government for people in the informal sector is practically zero. For example, under the Old Age Pension Scheme, the pension is Rs 200 per month for people between 60-80 years and Rs 500 per month for those above 80 years of age. There is an urgent need to increase the pension amount. But again, it is not likely to happen even in the upcoming budget because pensions for the informal sector have been among the most neglected areas," he said.

He added that the coverage under pensions for the informal sector is also not increasing because the allocation towards the scheme is inadequate.

In 2022-23 (Budget Estimates), Rs 9,652 crore were allocated under NSAP, just Rs 452 crore more than Rs 9,200 allocated in 2021-22 (Budget Estimates).

Development of religious minorities

For the development of religious minorities, there are two major programmes in the country. First is the Prime Minister's new 15-point programme that focuses on 15 areas of development like education, health, skill training, and housing, among others and calls for at least 15 per cent of funds under various programmes to be dedicated to minorities. The other is Multisectoral Development Programme, which has been renamed Pradhan Mantri Jan Vikas Karyakram and aims to address the development deficits in minority concentration areas.

However, according to Jawed Alam Khan, while the 15-point programme is almost completely dysfunctional as concerned departments are not reporting anything under it, PM Jan Vikas Karyakram faces challenges related to planning and implementation. He hopes the upcoming budget gives clear fiscal and physical targets that force the departments to report more efficiently.

Khan highlighted that the minority communities are keenly, "almost desperately", waiting for announcements about education and livelihood for them as the government has recently stopped some important scholarship and fellowship programmes.

"Ministry of minorities affairs has the allocation of about Rs 5,000 crore. Out of this, almost half was dedicated to scholarship/fellowship programmes. Now with the major schemes being stopped this year, how will the ministry allocate the budget for the welfare of the minorities is something to look at," Khan said.

He added, "It should be noted that the allocation for the ministry of minority affairs has not been incremental over the last eight years. In 2014-15, it was Rs 3,800 crore, which has increased by only Rs 1,200 crore over the last eight years. With incremental budgeting, it should have increased by almost Rs 2,500-3,000 crore," he said.

Welfare of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes

For the welfare of the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, the government of India launched the Development Action Plan for Scheduled Castes and the Development Action Plan for Scheduled Tribes in 2017. According to Khan, the major expectation from the upcoming budget is that the government is to create a non-lapsable pool under both action plans, as mentioned under the 2017 guidelines of the NITI Aayog. He said, "A non-lapsable pool is important so that the money that was not utilised could be kept for later use. But the government could not implement it in the last five years."

He added that since the last five-year plan ended and the Tribal Sub Plan (TSP) and Scheduled Castes Sub Plan (SCSP) also stopped, there have been no government interventions in terms of exclusive programmes for SCs and STs under various ministries. He highlighted that the ministries have been earmarking funds for SCs and STs as a routine exercise without any specific purpose or follow-up on the outcomes.

He said, "This being the last full budget of the current government, we can expect a few exclusive programmes for this population, specifically for education. This year, the budget may also see an increase in the allocation and physical targets for post-metric scholarships for SCs and STs. Last year the FM did not even mention development action plans for SCs and STs."

Avani Kapur, Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research and Lead, Accountability Initiative, said that she expects the upcoming budget to focus on utilising funds and better implementing the existing schemes under the social sector. She said, "The Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment till November 2022 had released only 25 per cent of its funds - while this was better than last year same time, it doesn't bode too well for the important schemes under the ministry. This is even after we did see declines even in budget 2022-23 compared to the previous years' budget estimates. For instance, the Umbrella Programme for Development of Other Vulnerable Groups and many of the central sector schemes had seen a decline. With lower releases, revised estimates and actual expenditures are likely to be lower."

Livelihood opportunities and social safety

Kapur highlighted that Budget 2022-23 had decreased allocations for Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) to Rs 73,000 crore in BE 2022-23, a drop of 26 per cent from revised estimates for 2021-22, which was Rs 98,000 crore. Kapur said, "This year too, the funds have not been able to keep up with demand. The supplementary budget has given additional allocations for the scheme but they remain lower than last year's Revised Estimates. This is worrying as there continue to remain pending liabilities under the scheme."

She said that the upcoming budget is expected to increase allocation under MGNREGS. Reduction in the MGNREGS will have a devastating impact on the rural poor, she said.

She added that the upcoming budget is also expected to increase food subsidies as the government has already announced the free ration programme, even though the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) has ended.

The experts also stressed that in the upcoming budget, Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, which provides LPG connections to women of Below Poverty Line families, may see an increase in the allocation and physical targets for the financial year 2023-24.