AIADMK tussle leaves BJP in a dilemma as to which side to ally with

A hint of a churn within the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in the past, and the “big brother” Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stepped in to sort out the impending turmoil and ensure that Tamil Nadu’s principal Opposition party stayed united. The BJP could not countenance the idea of a split in the AIADMK between the competing factions led by former chief ministers O Panneerselvam (OPS) and Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), each of whom was convinced that he had the “right” to the political legacy of J Jayalalithaa. It is believed that in December 2016, following Jayalalithaa’s death, the “compromise of convenience” struck between having OPS as coordinator and EPS as joint coordinator resulted from the BJP’s intervention and exertion.

EPS never concealed his resentment at the idea of having a “dual leadership” to oversee the AIADMK and waited to strike back, unmindful of the BJP’s watchful gaze. He mobilised a seemingly unassailable majority against OPS, organised a show of strength at the AIADMK’s general council meeting on July 11 this year, terminated the dual leadership norm, amended the AIADMK’s constitution, which was later submitted to the Election Commission, and expelled OPS and his supporters.

All the while, the BJP watched the goings-on from the spectator’s ring, barring an occasional intrusion that did not culminate in anything substantive. On June 26, K Annamalai, Tamil Nadu BJP president, invited OPS to be present when Droupadi Murmu filed her nomination papers for president. Panneerselvam took the next flight to Delhi, hoping the optics of being seen alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah at the function would nudge EPS to rethink his move to oust EPS from the AIADMK. OPS even sought time from Modi but returned empty-handed, a reflection of the BJP brass’s unwillingness to muddy its hands in the Chennai convulsion.

C T Ravi, the BJP’s general secretary minding Tamil Nadu, said: “The split is the AIADMK’s internal matter. We are not there to manage its affairs. Closer to the (Lok Sabha) elections, we will take a call on which side to go with. Right now, we are focused on local issues, notably the ruling DMK’s (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s) corruption, we are spreading the message about the result-oriented schemes of the Centre, and awakening people to the dangers of the conversion mafia and the insults to Hinduism. In Annamalai, we have an effective pan-Tamil Nadu leader.”

Asked which faction would better suit the BJP’s political interests, Ravi replied: “We will have an understanding with the group that controls the AIADMK’s institutional structures and sub-structures.” Clearly, the statement implied that EPS suited the BJP more at this juncture.

“OPS has no visible support in the party,” a Tamil Nadu BJP source said.

EPS consistently maintained that if OPS wanted to have a dialogue with him, his leadership and position as the next general secretary were “non-negotiable”. Apparently annoyed with OPS’s move to seek the BJP’s help while he was in Delhi, EPS fired another salvo by removing his name from the masthead of “Puratchi Thalaivi Namadha Amma”, the AIADMK’s mouthpiece, and retaining only his.

The BJP’s central command saw how OPS’s political stock declined when he was chief minister, despite the BJP’s backing and a “friendly” governor in C Vidyasagar Rao. In 2017, OPS couldn’t challenge the stranglehold of V K Sasikala, Jayalalithaa’s closest confidante, over the AIADMK until she was imprisoned. Before walking into Bengaluru’s central jail, she appointed EPS chief minister. EPS subsequently expelled her from the party. At the height of Sasikala’s dominance, OPS could only take away 11 of the AIADMK’s 143 legislators to his side. On the other hand, EPS quietly consolidated his strength and thwarted the BJP’s effort to cement an alliance with Sasikala and her now estranged nephew TTV Dhinakaran (who heads a separate outfit, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam) before the 2021 Assembly polls.

In the potpourri of legacy claimants, acronyms, and power struggles, some in the state BJP thought that rather than muddle through the mess, the party was best advised to work independently and enhance its bargaining power, if any. Karate Thiyagarajan, the BJP’s state secretary, said: “We are strengthening our party at the district, mandal, and booth levels.”

R C Paul Kanagaraj, state vice-president, added: “The BJP is a fringe player but we are already there in the popular debate as a third party, a potential alternative to the Dravidian parties.”

Vanathi Srinivasan, who heads the BJP’s Mahila Morcha and was elected MLA from Coimbatore South, said: “We are concentrating on 10-plus Lok Sabha seats (out of 39) which have been identified as favourable to the BJP.”

A state leader, requesting anonymity, put the BJP’s position in perspective, saying, “The situation is fluid. As of today, the only definitive thing is we will not have an alliance with the DMK but (MK) Stalin (the CM and a Congress ally) also breathes hot and cold towards the BJP, so who knows what will happen in 22 months? Our approach will be practical and won’t be determined by an inflexible strategy. The only measure is as a national party we won’t deal with separatist elements but the debate over Hindi-Tamil is not part of separatism. Our stand is while Tamil should be compulsorily learnt in Tamil Nadu, Hindi should be an option.”

A source close to L Murugan, former state BJP president and now junior central minister, said: “All these criteria are fine. But let’s get realistic. If we don’t work to bring about a truce between EPS and OPS, it will be advantage DMK even in the Lok Sabha polls.”