Tribulations of the tribal state

The 2019 Assembly elections saw the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) resounding defeat at the hands of the alliance comprising the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and other smaller parties. Raghubar Das, the incumbent BJP chief minister (CM), couldn’t win even his own seat (Jamshedpur East) and lost to a former colleague, Saryu Roy, by more than 15,000 votes, not a small margin for an Assembly election. In the 81-seat legislature, the JMM alone got 30 seats. The configuration of the Assembly suggested that even if the BJP wanted, with just 25 seats it would not be able to engineer enough defections to form a government.

But the Congress and other parties say Jharkhand is the next state where Operation Lotus is going to be launched. It could happen after Diwali or Chhath. But a more sophisticated form of such an operation will likely lead to a new CM in Jharkhand heading a BJP-friendly alliance. Basically, the BJP reckons that if the top man is deposed, the JMM can be lured to form an alliance with it, throwing out the Congress and other partners. The justification for the switch (which the new incumbent is expected to helm) is that since the BJP enabled a tribal to be elected to India’s top post, the president of India, why should the JMM oppose it?

The first indication that a switch was possible came when three Congress MLAs were found travelling from West Bengal to Jharkhand with large sums of cash in their car. No one has really explained how the cash came to be there or what it was going to be used for. Events followed swiftly. In February this year, the BJP had submitted a complaint to Governor Ramesh Bais, demanding CM Hemant Soren be disqualified for getting a stone chip mining lease allotted to himself. The Representation of the People Act prohibits elected representatives from entering into any contract with the government for “supply of goods” or “execution of any works undertaken” by it. Mr Soren, who holds the mining and environment portfolios in his coalition government, had obtained a mining lease of 0.88 acres in the Angara block of Ranchi district in June 2021. He surrendered the lease in February, when the story broke. But the BJP persisted in its demand that he step down. The Election Commission (EC) has reportedly recommended his disqualification as MLA. However, at the time of writing, the governor was yet to officially communicate his order on the issue (a delegation of the ruling coalition met him on Thursday and asked him to “clear the air” on whether Mr Soren could continue as MLA).

So the picture is clear. If Mr Soren is forced to resign, a new chief minister is elected and he or she accepts the support of the BJP to form a government. Not Operation Lotus exactly, but a variant of it. Elections in Jharkhand are in 2024, so the BJP has plenty of time to correct its earlier mistake of appointing a plainsman (Raghubar Das) as CM.

This could be easier said than done.

Mr Soren is determined not to go down without a fight. So if he can keep his flock together, he can appoint a family member, a la the Bihar model where Lalu Prasad appointed Rabri Devi when he was forced to step down. This is on the assumption that coalition partners too can keep their MLAs together. Mr Soren has powerful antecedents. The JMM was started in 1973 by a young man just out of his teens, Shibu Soren. The party’s story is folklore: The British tried to supplant tribal Gods with Christianity. The Hindus attempted to do the same with Hindu Gods, not recognising Sarna, the tribal religion that does not have a religious code. If the Congress is to be blamed for not doing enough for Sarna while it was in power, the BJP believes Hinduism is vast and enveloping enough for Sarna to find a place. The tribals — the Oraons, Mundas, and Santhals — don’t think so. Shibu Soren emphasised that the lot of the tribals would not improve until their identity was recognised as unique: For this they needed self-governance and their own province. He helped get them their province and self-governance. But identity politics rests on ensuring identity endures. Hemant Soren realises this.

The BJP is not sitting back and twiddling its thumbs. The party might not have a credible face in the state to field as its leader. But the idea that you can be both a Hindu and a tribal is gaining traction. Of course, every now and then, this idea gets a beating: Like the time Mr Das tried to change the status of forest land and as governor, Droupadi Murmu shot the proposal down. That move betrayed not just Ms Murmu’s assertion of identity, but the BJP’s understanding of tribal identity.

This is long-term politics. In the short term, it is possible that Hemant Soren could lose his job and the BJP could come to power in Jharkhand by the back-door. But whether with this move the BJP will make a place for itself in tribal hearts remains to be seen.