The nation on Agnipath: Perils of a government that does not listen

The Central government has been caught unawares by violent agitations against Agnipath, its short-tenure recruitment programme to the armed forces. The navy chief is on record saying that he had not expected "protests like this". Perhaps his counterparts in the Army and the Indian Air Force didn't either. The government itself is surprised. Yet attempts to blame conspiracies organised by the Opposition or a foreign hand mock the public's intelligence. Its geographical spread shows that the agitations are organic and spontaneous.

In less than a week, the Agnipath scheme has been tweaked half-a-dozen times – by extending the age limit from 21 to 23 for this year; promising a 10 per cent quota in the central paramilitary forces and Assam Rifles; a further 10 per cent quota in defence ministry jobs, and preferential hiring of "Agniveers" (without indicating quotas) in the state police and the shipping ministry, after the four-year "tour of duty". These rapid-fire concessions suggest that the government realises its failure to anticipate the protests.

The government ignored the red flags earlier this year when Bihar and Uttar Pradesh youth protested discrepancies in the Railways Recruitment Board — Non-Technical Popular Categories (RRB-NTPC). The government quickly backtracked with the UP legislative assembly election less than a month away. The problem of youth unemployment got swept under the carpet as the BJP won the election through a strategic mix of religious polarisation and handouts.

Within six months, it has resurfaced, triggered by another ill-conceived change in government policy. Only this time, the job aspirants are drawn from across the country, their numbers are much larger, and the protests have drawn in rural youth, who prefer the armed services as a career. But it is not just a difference in size and spread.

This time, apart from targeting public property such as trains and buses, the agitating youth have also earmarked the local offices of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the houses of its functionaries. Several BJP leaders in Bihar have had to be provided Y-category security. Clearly, political decision-makers are being blamed as no army property has been attacked. Prime Minister Modi's social media team will perhaps never let him see the videos of youngsters venting against him.

Unless the Centre acts fast to tweak the Agnipath recruitment scheme further or withdraw it, the anger could spill over to other age groups in the rural hinterland. Army veterans run a massive coaching industry for recruitment to the armed forces. Rural families sink enormous amounts of their savings to send their children to such boot camps – often year after year. The new scheme has fuelled anger, especially among those who had cleared the demanding physical and medical exams before the pandemic, which stopped recruitment for 2.5 years. They are now being denied a chance to complete the process by appearing for the entrance test.

The farmers' organisations may likely lend support to the agitating youngsters as most soldiers come from farming households. The national spokesperson of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU), Rakesh Tikait, has already tweeted support saying, "The government should know that those getting into the armed forces are also sons of farmers. We will fight till our last breath for the youngsters of the country and our children." An alliance between farmers' organisations and the protestors cannot be entirely ruled out.

Currently, the protests are standalone anarchic episodes, even if they are spread across the country. The violence will remain unpredictable unless these geographically distributed protests coalesce. As of now, the government's offer of talks to the protesting youngsters is meaningless as there is no entity it can talk to.

The agitations against Agnipath have displaced the issues of blaspheming against the Prophet and the government's use of bulldozers to demolish the homes of Muslim protestors to a political sideshow. That was a political discourse which suited the ruling dispensation and one it could skilfully turn to its advantage. The new agitation has shifted the focus from communal polarisation back to the more difficult question of economic distress. No nationalist packaging of the new recruitment policy can compensate for the denial of financial stability offered by more extended service, pension and medical coverage for life. A policy that snatches away the hope of a stable and secure life from the youth can lead to dangerous consequences.

The government's response must move substantially beyond simply countering 'misinformation' with the "benefits" of Agnipath. The simplest solution would be to put the armed forces on the New Pension Scheme like the paramilitary forces and everyone else in government service. Other than that, the previous recruitment policy could continue.

At the root of the government's policy disasters — demonetisation, the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Covid-19 lockdown, controversial farm laws and now Agnipath — is its failure to be informed about the views of stakeholders and build a responsive policy.

The Modi government has a serious information problem. All official channels of critical feedback are clogged. The legislative channels have been eroded because of BJP's massive electoral mandate. The few Opposition voices which dare to speak against government policy have been tied down in labyrinthine legal cases. The media is happier cheerleading the regime rather than amplifying critical voices in society. Intellectuals and academics associated with advising on state policy play safe and try to second-guess what the political leadership wants.

The unofficial and low-cost channels of information of social activists, NGOs and other voluntary organisations that work with different sections of society — are discouraged from public advocacy and must do little more than implement government schemes. The government might try to get feedback by monitoring its citizens' digital activities through various legal and para-legal means. But such information is not useful beyond security issues. It cannot provide the basis of a responsive policy. Its bewilderment and insecurity at public protests result in increased repression against those who refuse to appreciate its 'good intentions'.