Split season

By the time this piece is published, another edition of the English Premier League (EPL) will have kicked off with a London derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace at the latter’s ground at Selhurst Park, as will have the Bundesliga with reigning champions Bayern Munich playing away against Eintracht Frankfurt. Ligue 1, the French first tier, will also have begun, with Olympique Lyonnais playing AC Ajaccio at home.

The two other top European leagues will begin over the next weekend, with Sevilla playing Osasuna away on August 12 in Spain and a clutch of matches kicking off in Italy the next day.

There will be the usual intrigues and excitement in each of these affairs, with neutrals trying to suss out issues particular to each over the course of the coming months. One thing, however, will be common to all of them and will be unprecedented: A World Cup breaking the season into two halves.

The 22nd edition of the competition will begin in Qatar on November 21 and end on December 18, with the top European leagues returning to business after Christmas. Of the greatest interest in Qatar will be whether one of the elite group of eight nations — Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay; and England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain — will once again win the Cup or whether a new entrant will force its way in. The most strongly placed to do so will possibly be Portugal, with its exciting array of attacking talent and its balance between experience and youthful verve.

Fans are also being consumed by the impact the interruption will have on the contenders to domestic and European titles. To begin with, in a limited sense we have already had the experience of a disruption, with the 2019-20 season being put on hold midway because of the Covid pandemic.

One could argue that it was not an interruption of the same order. The clubs that will be most affected by the World Cup are those that are either genuine contenders for domestic titles or in the competition for slots in the Champions League and lesser European trophies because obviously they will have a larger number of players participating in the World Cup than the smaller clubs.

That said, there will be differentials that could tip the balance. In marginal contests, clubs with more players in the cup competition, like Manchester United compared to, say, Newcastle United, will be at a disadvantage.

That is where the second factor will kick in: Strength in depth. Clubs with a quality bench will suffer less because they will be able to rotate their squad, especially in the crucial second half of their campaigns, when, very often, fortunes are made or unmade. The stand-out team in this regard is Manchester City, which, through a process of balanced planning and investment, has ensured that it has two almost equally good players in practically every position.

Each league will have specific contests and questions. In Germany, Bayern Munich’s continued domination of the Bundesliga will be the big issue. Will it be able to extend its already eye-popping run of 10 domestic titles on the bounce? As things stand, Borussia Dortmund is the team that could end the streak.

Over in Spain, Barcelona will attract a lot of attention for splurging on players even while being saddled with debt in excess of a billion euros. Latest reports though suggest that financial rules are still coming in the way of registering new players. Even if that problem is sorted, will it be able to win back the title in its first full season under illustrious alumnus Xavi? Real Madrid is no pushover despite its relatively quiet transfer season.

In Italy, the big questions will be over whether Napoli will continue its ascent and win the title after more than three decades and the fate of Jose Mourinho’s “project”, so far encouraging though hardly spectacular, at Roma. In France, the spotlight will again be on Paris Saint-Germain, which will be under Christophe Galtier, its sixth full-time manager since the Qatari takeover in 2011. Since the 2012-13 season it has failed to win the title only twice, which will make matters intriguing, especially in the light of Kylian Mbappe’s controversial decision to stay at the club after flirting with a switch to Real Madrid.

The EPL promises more of the same: A two-way contest for the title between Manchester City and Liverpool; Champions League places for Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur; and a Europa League place for Arsenal. The big question, then, will be about the “Dutch revolution” at Manchester United under Erik Ten Hag’s helmsmanship. Will the Red Devils make an unexpected surge to get into the top four or will they regress out of European competition completely after a so-far iffy transfer season.