General elections 2024: The BJP chief has his task cut out for him

The BJP has held its national executive meeting. Its president wants the party to win in all 9 states, elections to which are due this year. Mr Modi has said that the Opposition should not be underestimated.

So naturally, a discussion has now started in real earnest over the next general election due in April 2024. The party has identified 160 seats for special campaigns. It would need 112 more to win a simple majority. Presumably, it thinks these are already won.

The focus is now very clearly on how many seats the BJP will lose from the 303 it won in 2019. If it loses 32 seats, it will lose its majority. That will be seen as a major rebuff to the party and, more importantly, to the prime minister.

The chances are it will lose more than just 32 unless it pulls a Balakot-type rabbit out of its hat. But that was enabled by our stupid neighbour, Pakistan, which allowed its terrorists to attack Pulwama on February 14, 2019.

How worried is the BJP about losing its majority? I suspect very. Unemployment, a general decline in incomes, and high food, health and medical bills are not good auguries for the party.

Or, as economics would have it, GDP is up, but per capita welfare is down. That’s bad news for any ruling party. Identity politics works well when people are feeling better than they are now.

Given the sort of party the BJP is under, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, we should expect an aggressive strategy consisting of large doses of Hindutva in all its many manifestations. That process has already started. But I don’t think it will work for two reasons.

First, Mr Modi may be the most popular leader that India has seen after Indira Gandhi, but, as we saw in the Himachal Pradesh assembly election last year, he cannot attract enough votes any longer. The local candidates also matter because while Mr Modi is a leader, they are mere politicians who will be judged differently.

This is because whatever negative things one may think about the Aam Aadmi Party, it has changed the priorities of the voter who is looking for concrete action on schools, hospitals and other local facilities. The emphasis is on local. Since these can only be provided by state governments, Mr Modi’s appeals to vote for him may not be enough.

Second, when a party has been in power for as long as the BJP has, it develops internal fissures. Rebellion against the national leadership is inevitable. It’s led by those who see no future for themselves anymore.

Take the two together, and you will see why I think the party isn’t going to get a majority. It will get somewhere between 240-260 — 120 assured and 160 with special effort. 245-50, by the way, was the number it was expecting in February 2019.

Then the Pakistanis handed the election to it with the attack on Pulwama. When you look back, Pakistan has enabled three wins for ruling parties in India: 1971, 1999 and 2019.

If the BJP fails to win a simple majority, it will seek the help of non-BJP MPs. But it will be interesting to see how Mr Modi changes his operating style because he has functioned in a large coalition.

And here’s a thought: what if it loses more than 50, say 75? That’s why the BJP will adopt a strategy that minimises its maximum loss. Satisfying very localised political aspirations and ambitions will hold the key to this.

The party president, J P Nadda, clearly has his task cut out for him.