Economic agents in the first world get to import these goods at a low cost, while the people in that economy do not face pollution in their backyard. The fact that (say) heavy metals are leaching into the Indian groundwater has no impact upon the decisions of a faraway buyer. The producers located in advanced economies are decimated, but they command no sympathy as the political pendulum in the West has shifted strongly in favour of environmental protection.
There is, however, a key difference. CO2 emissions hurt the entire planet, regardless of where they come from. This is not like heavy metal poisoning of an aquifer in India, where the adverse impact is only local. Firms in advanced economies will raise hell in their political system when they face plant closure rooted in pollution arbitrage, which does not even improve global emissions.
Politicians in advanced economies will not countenance shifting jobs from their country to a production site like India, while obtaining no gains in emissions. Therefore, carbon-border taxation in advanced economies will happen. There will be recrimination, friction, delays and a gradual phase-in — which will create a moment of glory for firms that emit in India — but carbon-border taxes will surely come about to a point where they will close off the arbitrage opportunity.
The second part of the story will be the international relations complexity for India as a sustained emitter of CO2. The difference between the CO2 trajectory of the advanced economies versus that in India will become increasingly uncomfortable at the level of international relations. Pressure will mount upon India to change course. India needs help from advanced economies (say) in dealing with China. It will become increasingly uncomfortable for India to stay on course in emitting CO2.
To summarise, Indian firms may at first gain tremendously from CO2 pollution arbitrage. With a lag, these arbitrage opportunities will close through a combination of carbon-border taxes and improvements in Indian pollution control. It would be good for Indian non-financial firms and their funders in the financial system to think strategically about this problem. If we merely look at performance as seen in the accounting data over a few quarters, this will justify substantial physical investment and allocations of financial capital. But if we understand the forces at work, we will enjoy this good fortune but know that it's temporary.
When we are execution-oriented, we climb the gradient of our local hill. In the Indian business landscape, there will be many quarters of business triumph which, if acted upon, will result in capital destruction. For non-financial firms and financial analysts, it would be good to start simulating each business in India as if it is operated under Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development-levels of carbon taxation. Methods like goods and services tax vouchers are required to work out the full upstream carbon intensity of each firm. The sound business models are competitive and generate a good return on equity after paying a shadow price of about $100 per tonne of CO2.
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