MCX Crude oil may find support at Rs 6,400; Natural Gas could test Rs 227

On the upside, the Rs 6,700-odd level remains a major hurdle for Crude Oil futures; whereas, interim support for Natural Gas is placed at Rs 240.

The MCX Crude Oil futures continue to face resistance around the Rs 6,700 hurdle, a level it has been unable to conquer conclusively since mid-November. However, select momentum oscillators have now turned favourable, hence, the commodity could seek support at higher levels as it consolidates.

Meanwhile, Natural Gas futures continue to trade with a bearish bias. Although, the commodity seems oversold on the daily chart, the monthly chart indicates a possibility of more pain ahead.

Crude Oil

Bias: Range-bound

Last close: Rs 6,560

Anticipated Range: Rs 6,780; Rs 6,075

Support: Rs 6,430; Rs 6,400

Resistance: Rs 6,725

The MCX Crude Oil futures continue to face resistance around its 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) now placed at Rs 6,725. Since mid-November the Crude Oil futures have failed to take out this resistance despite multiple attempts.

The overall trend indicates a likely range-bound movement in the broad range of Rs 6,075 to Rs 6,780, with interim support seen at Rs 6,430 level - which is the 20-DMA.

As long as the MCX Crude Oil February futures manages to sustain above the 20-DMA, it may reattempt a move towards the 100-DMA hurdle and the higher-end of the anticipated trading band.

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI and MACD seem to indicate a likely consolidation in the near-term. 

Further, the weekly chart indicates that the energy-based commodity is looking to build higher support around its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 7,400-odd levels. Hence, a near term consolidation in the range of Rs 6,400 to Rs 6,700 seems likely for now.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil February futures have so far this week faced resistance at its R1-level of Rs 6,750; and taken support at Rs 6,544. On the downside, Crude Oil prices can dip to Rs 6,490 - Rs 6,445 - Rs 6,405. Whereas, a move above Rs 6,750 hurdle can trigger gains up to Rs 6,790 - Rs 6,835.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil February contract may seek support around Rs 6,495 - Rs 6,475 - Rs 6,455. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 6,595 - Rs 6,624 - Rs 6,663.

Natural Gas

Bias: Bearish

Last close: Rs 256.80

Target: Rs 227; Rs 170

Support: Rs 240

Resistance: Rs 291

The MCX Natural Gas futures continue to trade with a negative bias, way below all its key moving averages. The 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-DMA for the commodity are placed at Rs 291.60, Rs 425.50, Rs 495.30 and Rs 558.50.

The near-term bias is likely to remain bearish as long as the commodity trades below the 20-DMA. On the downside, the energy-based commodity can test the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, indicating a downside target of Rs 227.

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI is in oversold zone, and the ADX is looking to edge up from its lower level. The MACD is marginally positive on the daily chart.

On the weekly scale, the commodity since the last three weeks is seen trading below the 200-WMA, now placed at Rs 292. Meanwhile, the monthly chart indicates likely support at Rs 240 level, below which the next target seems placed near Rs 170-odd level.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the Natural Gas February futures may seek support around Rs 249.50 - Rs 247.20 - Rs 245; whereas, on the upside, the energy-based commodity is likely to counter resistance around Rs 261 - Rs 264.10 - Rs 268.70.