Bias for MCX Crude Oil still negative; Upside seems capped for Natural Gas

The MCX Crude Oil futures are likely to trade with a negative bias as long as the commodity trades below Rs 8,200. Whereas, Natural Gas futures face near resistance around Rs 604.

The MCX Crude Oil futures staged a sharp rebound after near about testing its long-term moving average (200-DMA) last week. Despite, the pullback the overall bias for Crude Oil futures remain negative. Meanwhile, Natural Gas futures are likely to remain rangebound in the near term.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 8,064

Resistance: Rs 8,200, Rs 8,400

Support: Rs 7,450, Rs 7,200

The MCX Crude Oil futures came within striking distance of its 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) last week and then rebounded sharply. The energy commodity from a low of Rs 7,274, rallied to a high of Rs 8,350 on Monday.

Despite, the sharp pullback the overall bias for Crude Oil futures remain negative, as the commodity trades below all key moving averages. According to price-to-moving averages action, Crude Oil futures have multiple resistances in the range of Rs 8,200 to Rs 8,600.

On the flip side, sustained trade below Rs 8,200, can trigger a re-test of the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at Rs 7,450-odd level. The 200-DMA stands at Rs 7,200.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Crude Oil futures are likely to face considerable resistance around Rs 8,380 to Rs 8,400; and on the downside seem likely to re-test 7,400-level.

On Wednesday, the MCX Crude Oil August futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 7,835 to Rs 8,290, with the commodity likely to seek support around Rs 7,980 - Rs 7,925 - 7,880; whereas on the upside Crude Oil could face resistance around Rs 8,145 - 8,205 - 8,250. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Rangebound

Last close: Rs 586.60

Support: Rs 557, Rs 533.60

Resistance: 604.50, 625

The MCX Natural Gas July futures are currently testing resistance around the higher-end of the expected trading range. The commodity has resistance at its 50-DMA at Rs 587.20, and the higher-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart at Rs 601.20.

The energy commodity needs to sustain above these resistance for further gains to emerge. For now, the upside seems capped around Rs 604-odd level. In case it breaks above it, Natural Gas futures can potentially rally to Rs 625 to Rs 640 levels.

On the downside, the commodity has near support around its 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs 533.60, below which the next significant supports are placed at Rs 529.50 and Rs 506.60, its 100-DMA and 20-DMA, respectively.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas futures so far this week have face resistance around the R3 (Resistance) placed at Rs 604.50. On the downside, Rs 557 is the key support. A move in either direction could set the trend for the remainder of the week.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 565.70 to Rs 607.50. The commodity could seek support around Rs 579.20 - 573.70 - 569.70. On the upside, the Natural Gas futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 594 - 599.50 - 603.50.