Brothers at odds, but ruling family still holds key to Lanka's future

It was the moment when two brothers who had dominated Sri Lanka’s politics for nearly 20 years finally went their separate ways.

On May 9, when a crowd of ruling party supporters marched towards activists protesting against a crippling economic crisis, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa ordered police to stop the pro-government mob, fearing violence. “He was screaming at the police to disperse the crowd,” said former media minister Nalaka Godahewa, who said he was with the president at the time.

Despite the president’s order, the demonstrations against inflation, power blackouts and shortages of essentials turned deadly. Nine people were killed, hundreds were injured and the property of Rajapaksa loyalists was attacked.

The violence marked a pivotal point in the crisis.

Gotabaya’s older brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, had addressed the government supporters earlier in the day. He was sitting down for lunch when he was shown a video of the violence by an aide, according to a source with direct knowledge of events at the prime minister's house in the commercial capital Colombo.

“He knew what he would do next,” said the source.

The 76-year-old, one of Sri Lanka’s most popular politicians in his heyday, finished his meal and had a nap, the source said.

At 5.02 pm, he announced his resignation as prime minister, making public a rift in Sri Lanka’s ruling dynasty.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid retribution, said the president had already been pushing the prime minister to resign since early April as a concession to protesters demanding the ouster of both men because of their response to the economic crisis enveloping the island.

“GR (had) told MR to go,” said another source close to the family, referring to the president and the prime minister by their initials.

Neither Mahinda Rajapaksa nor the president responded to requests for comment for this story. They have not publicly said anything about their differences.

After he quit, Mahinda went into hiding at a naval base and stayed under protection of the armed forces for several days because of the wrath of the protesters. Gotabaya, 72, continues as president, deeply unpopular with many Sri Lankans, while political leaders discuss a move to clip the executive powers of his office.

But the Rajapaksas are not done yet. A third brother, Basil, wields considerable influence over the country via his hold over the ruling party that dominates parliament, according to at least five people who spoke to Reuters, including Godahewa and two other former ministers.

Evidence of reforms

The new prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is heavily dependent in parliament on the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party to pass an interim budget within weeks that will outline measures to mend public finances. He has also proposed reforms to curb the president's powers and strengthen parliament in response to demands from protesters. The International Monetary Fund wants evidence of reforms before agreeing to a bailout, for which negotiations are ongoing. Sri Lanka also needs a deal with bondholders and bilateral creditors to restructure its debt, and regain access to global financial markets.