Aluminium stocks jump as traders eye shift from shortage to glut

Warehouse stockpiles tracked by the LME jumped by 11% on Tuesday, the biggest increase since February, and rebounding from a three-decade low struck in August

Aluminium
Photo: Bloomberg
Mark Burton | Bloomberg
2 min read Last Updated : Sep 06 2022 | 10:04 PM IST
A jump in London Metal Exchange aluminium inventories is adding to mounting evidence of weakening demand for one of the world’s most important industrial metals, while some key buyers are trying to shun Russian supplies.

Warehouse stockpiles tracked by the LME jumped by 11 per cent on Tuesday, the biggest increase since February, and rebounding from a three-decade low struck in August. Like several other metals, aluminium has been caught for months in a push-pull between tight physical supplies and worries about a deteriorating economic outlook.

There are growing signs that consumption is suffering, which could lead to even bigger inflows onto the LME -- typically the market of last resort. Some buyers are already asking to roll forward purchase volumes under contracts for this year into 2023, according to two senior aluminium traders, asking not to be identified identified discussing private information.

A shift to oversupply would represent a reversal for the global aluminium market, which has faced acute shortages as a construction boom boosted demand while Europe’s energy crisis hobbled production. The challenges for producers look set to get worse over winter, but the surge in power and gas prices is threatening to create an even greater slump in factory output, hurting demand. 

“In Germany, so far we’ve seen more supply losses than demand destruction but things are looking trickier going forwards,” Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Widmer said by phone. Futures prices on the LME have already reacted to the growing demand risk, with aluminium trading more than 40 per cent below a peak in March.

There’s also a growing question mark over the role of Russian metal in the global market following the invasion of Ukraine, particularly as negotiations get underway this month for annual supply contracts across the industry. Aluminium hasn’t been targeted with sanctions by the US or Europe, but some major buyers including Novelis Inc. are seeking to avoid Russian metal in new deals. 

Russian aluminium giant United Co. Rusal saw a rise in metal inventories and raw materials over the first half of the year as production outpaced sales. The risk for the market is that large amounts of unwanted Russian metal begin to flow into LME warehouses, creating distortions, said two senior aluminium traders. Rusal declined to comment.

Aluminium prices on the LME declined 0.9 per cent to $2,264 a ton on Tuesday. Aluminium inventories rose by 31,325 tons to 308,375 tons. 

One subscription. Two world-class reads.

Already subscribed? Log in

Subscribe to read the full story →
Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Quarterly Starter

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

Save 46%

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Access to Exclusive Premium Stories Online

  • Over 30 behind the paywall stories daily, handpicked by our editors for subscribers

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

Topics :Aluminium suppliesLondon Metal Exchange

Next Story