Most districts in UP, Bihar and Jharkhand battle monsoon deficit

Paddy sowing slows down in the states, likely complicating the central government's plans for food stocks

India’s four-month-long southwest monsoon will in a few days enter its penultimate phase, prompting forecasters to track its performance in the east and northwest where rainfall has been scanty in some states.

Poor rains in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar and other states affected paddy sowing, which till last week was around 17 per cent less than last year. Also affected is area under arhar (tur dal or pigeon pea), an important pulse grown during the kharif season.

The rest of the crops, as per an update on July 15, have recovered strongly in the last few weeks when the monsoon entered a vigorous phase over the central, western, and southern parts of the country.

It is in UP, Bihar, and Jharkhand that most districts have cumulatively experienced less than normal rains between June 1 and July 19.

Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) between June 1 and July 19 shows that in UP almost 72 out of the 75 districts have not got normal rains. In Bihar it is 25 out of the 38 districts and in Jharkhand 22 of the 24 districts. In Punjab, 10 out of the 22 districts got deficient rains between June 1 and July 19.

Paddy sowing has taken a hit in these states. Till the middle of July, paddy has been sown in around 12.85 million hectares of land, which is around 32 per cent of the normal area under paddy in the kharif season which is 39.70 million hectares.

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Paddy sowing in the kharif season continues till July 15 and in many places till the middle of August. The biggest shortfall in acreage compared to last year has been in UP, Telangana, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Bihar. In most states, sowing is down either due to scanty or excess rain.

A fall in paddy production could have repercussions for cereal prices months later as wheat stocks in the government’s central pool aren't enough to compensate for any surge in prices, experts said. A fall in rice acreage could force the government to reconsider its open export policy.

The central pool’s rice stocks were higher than the buffer and strategic norms on July 1, but they would not be sufficient if the government extends its free food grains scheme beyond September, some reports said.

An internal note by the Food Ministry has said that it would cost the exchequer around Rs 80,000 crore more in subsidy if the free scheme is extended, according to reports.

The central pool rice stock, as of July 1, is estimated to be at around 31.5 million tonnes: much higher than the requirement of 13.5 million tonnes.

The rice stock does not include around 23.15 million tonnes of unmilled paddy lying with millers. When this stock is added to the central pool, it will mean another 15.51 million tonnes of rice for the public distribution system (PDS) and other operations of the government.

Unmilled paddy stock is estimated to be around 23.15 million tonnes as on July 1 this year--the highest since 2015, official data showed.

In total (both wheat and rice), the data shows that as on July 1 India had around 83.36 million tonnes of food grains in its stocks. The amount is the lowest in the last three years (it does not include coarse cereals).

The good news is that IMD has predicted that rains will revive over the Indo-Gangetic plains and the northwest in August. The monsoon started weak in several parts of the country but picked up to narrow the all-India deficit from a high of almost 43 per cent as on June 11 to less than 10 per cent by the end of June.

Cumulative rainfall in July has been above normal in most parts of the country, except for UP and Bihar. Experts believe that kharif sowing has reached more than half of the area covered and will pick up pace.

Between July and August, almost 60 per cent of the total rainfall that falls in June to September takes place.

If the rains revive over UP, Bihar and Jharkhand then it would salvage the situation for people there.