 "Normal monsoon in Aug-Sep, but Bihar, northeast to see deficit: IMD")
India will receive normal monsoon rains in August-September, particularly in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand regions that have received the lowest rainfall in 119 years, the weather office said on Monday.
Rainfall in the east and northeastern regions, the rice bowl of the country, has been 45 per cent lesser than normal in July, but the forecast for the next two months has raised hopes for better showers, at least in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said during a virtual press conference.
"There is some scope for recovery of high rain deficiency in Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and East Uttar Pradesh. But some deficiency may remain in Bihar and some northeastern states," he said.
The earlier lowest rains for the east and northeastern region was in 1903 when the deficiency was 41.3 per cent below the normal level for the season.
He said rainfall across the country during the August-September period of the southwest monsoon season was most likely to be normal, i.e., 94 to 106 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA).
India has received seven per cent excess rains this season between June 1 and July 31, but the distribution has been uneven, with rice producing states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal reporting deficient rainfall.
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"For August, the monthly rainfall across the country as a whole is most likely to be normal, that is, 94 to 106 per cent of LPA," Mohapatra said.
He said 'normal' to 'above normal' rainfall is very likely in most parts of southeast India, northwest India and adjoining west central India, while the west coast and many parts of east central, east and northeast India may get lesser than expected showers.
Southwest monsoon had entered the break phase with the monsoon trough, the band of low pressure area from west to east, shifting to the foothills of the Himalayas last week.
This monsoon trough is expected to shift southwards by August 5 and rainfall activity is likely to get revived in central India.
The weather office has forecast normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of southeast India, northwest India and adjoining west-central India for this month.
However, below normal rainfall is likely in the west coast and many areas of east-central, east and northeast India, it said.
The maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal in many parts of east-central, east and northeast India and parts of northwest and south interior peninsular regions, the weather office said.
Hill areas in northwest parts of the country are likely to experience above normal minimum temperatures, it said, adding below normal minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over many parts of northwest, west central and southern India.
In June, India had received eight per cent deficient rainfall, mainly on account of the absence of low pressure system, which is crucial for bringing seasonal rains.
Normally, June witnesses the formation of three low pressure systems, impact of which lasts for nearly 11 days.
However, this June, only one weak low pressure system was formed and it had a one-day life, Mohapatra said.
On the contrary, July witnessed formation of four low pressure systems, impact of which lasted for 21 days. The weather systems brought copious amounts of rainfall to central and western parts of the country, he said.
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