Covid-19: Four states post double-digit test positivity ratios, shows data

Many other states have had Covid-19 cases doubling over the latest week

At least ten per cent of the tests conducted in four states have returned positive Covid-19 results.

The test positivity ratio is in double-digit territory for Goa (12.7 per cent), West Bengal (13 per cent), Mizoram (16.4 per cent) and Kerala (17.6 per cent); show numbers from independent tracker Covid19bharat.org. Maharashtra is fifth on the list with an 8.5 per cent test positivity ratio, showing a slight decline from the double-digit numbers seen earlier (see chart 1).

Some states don’t yet have a ten per cent test positivity ratio, but show a rising trend. Assam has seen its test positivity ratio rise from 5.7 per cent to 7.8 per cent during the period under consideration. Arunachal Pradesh has seen a similar increase from 2.7 per cent to 6.4 per cent.  

Many other states are not in the top five in terms of test positivity ratio but have seen a spike in cases. The analysis is based on 16 states reporting at least 1,000 cases over the one-week period under consideration. Case numbers tripled in Odisha week-on-week to 1,279 as of Sunday, July 3. They have also tripled in West Bengal to 9,513. Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are the others with the most rapidly rising cases (see chart 2).

The average growth in cases is 144.2 per cent for the top five states compared to 13.8 per cent for India overall. India’s growth rate was 19.7 per cent in the previous week. The decline is because eight out of the top 16 states recording at least 1,000 weekly cases showed a decline in growth over the last week.

West Bengal is taking steps to contain the infection. Speaking to Business Standard, Narayn Swaroop, West Bengal health secretary said the state has already issued testing guidelines and is now focusing on genome sequencing to catch any new variant entering the system quickly. He added that the other focus area was to finish pending vaccinations.

As more mutations of the Sars-CoV-2 surface, experts say that the newer variants would be more infectious and escape immunity. One such is the BA.2.75, the sub-lineage of the BA.2 Omicron variant. It has a mutation G446S which is one of the  most potent sites of escape from antibodies made by current vaccines that still neutralise BA.2. So it increases chances of infection in people so far protected. Therefore, catching the new variants fast is a key to effective containment. West Bengal is also trying to spot senior citizens who test positive and hospitalise them to ensure lower mortality and better disease management. Covid-19 tele-medicine is another initiative run by the state government, Swaroop said.

On the other hand, the North-Eastern state of Mizoram is trying to pull up its socks by increasing the share of RT-PCR in overall Covid-19 testing. Speaking to Business Standard, Pi Esther Lalruatkimi, health secretary of the state, said they were aware about the low rates of RT-PCR in their overall testing. But he pointed out that Mizoram has always had a relatively high test positivity rate (TPR). This is because they are primarily testing symptomatic people and are avoiding random testing. "We are also very transparent about our data, and are not hiding any numbers. But, yes a high positivity rate and low share of RT-PCR testing are concerns that we are trying to address actively," she added.

Mizroram health minister has taken a Covid19 review last week and has stressed on communicating the importance of Covid19 appropriate behaviour among people.

Maharashtra, however, has a very high share of RT-PCR testing. State health secretary Pradeep Vyas told Business Standard that RT-PCR share in overall tests here is around 70-80 percent. "The disease is running its course. Festivities are still some time away, and we will take appropriate steps to contain the spread during the festivals," Vyas said.

As such the state had identified six districts including Mumbai, Pune, Raigad, Palghar etc among those with high positivity rates and taken action. The state health department had asked all the 36 civic bodies in Maharashtra to step up sewage water genome sequencing for early detection of any emerging variants.

Between June 1 and June 18, most of the samples tested were of BA.2, while small percentages of BA.5 and BA.4 were also detected.

Of the states reporting high positivity rates Maharashtra has the lowest coverage in terms of precautionary doses. Doses administered are the equivalent of 3.1 per cent of the population. It is 4.5 per cent for Goa, 4.1 per cent for West Bengal, 4.4 per cent for Mizoram and 6 per cent for Kerala.

Experts bat for booster shots and also mixing vaccines for the third shot.