Give peace a chance

G20 presidency is an opportunity to lead the initiative

With intelligence sources in the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) pointing to the possibility of a spring offensive by the Russians against Ukraine, much of the debate has focused on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hesitancy over delivering Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Kyiv, the internal differences within the transatlantic alliance over supplying Ukraine more advanced offensive weaponry, and the escalatory risks of doing so. Either way, it is becoming clear that a prolonged war — it’s been 11 months today — is likely to be harmful not just to the combatants but to the global economy. The world, still to recover fully from the Covid-19 pandemic, has already felt the inflationary impact of sharply rising fuel and food prices, partly as a result of Europe’s switch to West Asian supplies to reduce its overwhelming dependence on Russia. As things stand, the signals for peace appear to be weak, with neither Russia nor Ukraine nor the US-led NATO showing signs of backing down from their maximalist positions. This intransigence offers India a good opportunity to leverage its presidency of the G20 this year and initiate an exercise for a viable peace.

India is in a strong position to lead such an initiative on several counts. First, it has managed to negotiate a delicate balance in its approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by abstaining from all anti-Russian resolutions in the United Nations even as it has deployed persuasive diplomatic language to urge the process of dialogue on both combatants. Exasperated Western politicos have chosen to view these serial abstentions as opportunistic self-interest because Russia accounts for a large percentage of India’s defence spare supplies and became a cheap source of crude oil. This explanation is partly valid. But it is equally true that the “neutral” position on the war has not served India’s interests vis-a-vis its newer ally, the US, either, which approved an F16 fleet “sustainment” programme with Pakistan, despite India’s manifest dissatisfaction with the move. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi displayed considerable diplomatic mettle to personally express to Russian President Vladimir Putin — on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting late last year —the risks of continuing the war.

Second, in its consistent position, India is not an outlier in its approach to the war. Apart from China, a Russian ally, several countries mostly representing the Global South — from those in South America to Africa — have displayed a similar discomfort with the US and Europe’s position and the prospect of a prolonged conflict. A number of such member-nations have abstained from serial UN resolutions criticising Russian aggression. For example, in an October 2022 resolution demanding that Russia reverse its course on its “illegal annexations” of the four regions of Ukraine, there were 35 abstentions, mostly from African nations, alongside India and China. Such overlapping positions and interests offer India, in its capacity as president of the G20 and as a large developing nation, the opportunity to mobilise countries in the Global South to explore solutions to the resolution of this conflict. An independent initiative for peace would not only enhance the credibility of India’s theme for the summit of “One Earth, One Family, One Future”, it would add a greater degree of utility to the G20 project, which recently lost some of its mojo, and move at least one step towards averting an impending global economic crisis.