The US economy will likely fall into a mild recession by the end of 2022 as the Federal Reserve raises rates to tame prices, according to economists at Nomura Holdings Inc.
Nomura warns that financial conditions will tighten further, consumers sentiment is souring, energy and food supply distortions have worsened and the global growth outlook has deteriorated.
“With rapidly slowing growth momentum and a Fed committed to restoring price stability, we believe a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 is now more likely than not,” Nomura economists Aichi Amemiya and Robert Dent wrote in a note Monday.