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A sustained improvement in the financial performance of Indian banks bodes well for the sector's intrinsic risk profiles, according to global rating agency Fitch. The pace of asset quality and profitability improvement has exceeded expectations, while capital buffers are broadly in line with the projections, it said in a statement. The sector's impaired-loan ratio declined to 4.5 per cent in the first nine months of financial year ended March 2023 (9MFY23), from 6 per cent at FY'22, it said, adding, this was nearly 60 basis points below Fitch's FY23 estimate. Increased write-offs have been a key factor, but higher loan growth, supported by lower slippages and improved recoveries, have also played a role, it said. Fitch expects a further improvement by FY23, although banks still face the risk of asset-quality pressure associated with the unwinding of loan forbearance in FY24. "The sector's improving provision cover (9MFY23: 75 per cent, FY22: 71 per cent) also supports banks' abili
Banks will face margin pressure next fiscal as they increase the deposit rates to attract funds to support sustained high loan growth, and the same will fall by 10 basis points to 3.45 per cent, a global rating agency said on Monday. "We expect the domestic banking sector's average net interest margin to slightly contract by about 10 bps (basis points) in FY24 to 3.45 per cent, following a 15 bps increase in FY23 to 3.55 per cent, in a base case scenario, but remain well above that during FY17-FY22 average of 3.1 per cent," Fitch Ratings said in a report. However, the 10 bps likely reduction in margin is unlikely to affect banks' profitability in the near term. Higher fee income -- stemming from higher loan growth -- and a revival in treasury gains should broadly counterbalance the twin pressures of higher credit costs and funding costs in FY24, while supporting capitalisation. This contraction is consistent with the lagged normalisation in deposit rates, although banks should be ab
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said it expects the five-month-old tax on windfall profits made by oil companies to be phased out in 2023 on the back of moderating oil rates. The government had on July 1 levied a new tax on domestically-produced crude oil as well as on the export of petrol, diesel and jet fuel (ATF) to take away windfall gains accruing to oil companies from a global surge in energy prices following Russian invasion of Ukraine. The tax rates are revised every fortnight based on prevailing international rates. The levy on petrol export has since been abolished. "We expect the windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production levied by the government in 2022 to be phased out in 2023 with moderating prices," Fitch said in its APAC Oil & Gas Outlook 2023. Domestically-produced crude oil, which makes up for 15 per cent of all oil consumed in the country, is priced at international rates. With global oil prices rallying to a decade high in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war,