Crisil Report

In FY24, the revenue growth will continue to be strong, but it will be a lower 9-11 per cent

9% of infrastructure, industrial capex is for green projects and number is rising, says agency

CRISIL said that the risks to inflation are 'tilted upward' due to the predictions of El Nino over the next couple of months

High cost of 5G devices and readily available 4G network shaping users' behaviour

Domestic airlines industry is expected to fly back into profitability next fiscal, for the first time since the outbreak of Covid, amid easing cost pressures and reduction in leverage to support credit profiles, a report said on Wednesday. As per the report by credit rating agency Crisil, the industry is also likely to pare its net loss by as much as 75-80 per cent year-on-year to Rs 3,500-4,500 crore this fiscal, compared with around Rs 17,500 crore last fiscal. Strong recovery in passenger traffic and easing cost pressures are supporting this turnaround in operating performance of airlines, Crisil said. The projections are based on Crisil Ratings analysis of three airlines that account for around 75 per cent of domestic air traffic. Domestic and international passenger traffic recovered to 90 per cent and 98 per cent, respectively, in the nine months through December this fiscal, compared with the corresponding period of fiscal 2020 (pre-pandemic). Business and leisure travel ..

The hot temperature if persists in March may not only reduce the wheat crop yield but also heat up the commodity prices, said CRISIL.

Prices of cereals are unlikely to rise further as witnessed in the recent past but may remain elevated well into the next fiscal due to vagaries of climate change, strong global and domestic demand, rating agency Crisil said. Domestic production of cereals has grown consistently in the past 50 years. However, prices of cereals have risen faster. The weighted average crop price index for cereal crops logged 3-4 per cent CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) over fiscals 2017-2022, it said in a report. Even in the current fiscal, prices of cereals have risen significantly on-year in the first nine months -- of wheat and paddy by 8-11 per cent and of maize, jowar and bajra by 27-31 per cent, it added. "....the price sentiment for cereal crops is expected to be strong in absolute terms," Crisil said. Anticipation of higher production of wheat in current rabi season is expected to improve the stock condition, which may put downward pressure on prices, though heatwaves remain a key ...

On the commercial real estate front, after a healthy performance in the first half of this financial year, net leasing will slow down in the second half owing to fears of an impending global recession

High raw material prices to put pressure on margins

The base issue size for ICICI Bank's infra bonds was Rs 1,000 crore with green shoe option of Rs 4,000 crore

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which account for 60-65 per cent of the health care delivery market, stand to benefit from the improvement

The Indian hotel industry is likely to witness 23 per cent growth in revenue this fiscal over the pre-pandemic level, driven by a strong recovery in business travel and continued traction in leisure travel, according to a report. Higher average room rates (ARRs) and occupancy will help the hotel industry log a strong improvement in profitability to around 34 per cent this fiscal compared to 24 per cent in the pre-pandemic period (fiscal 2020), Crisil Ratings said in a report. Revenue, on its part, will increase 23 per cent over the pre-pandemic level, riding on a strong recovery in business travel and continued traction in leisure travel, it added. "Leisure travel had gained traction post the Delta wave last fiscal, while business travel has started picking up steadily after a much milder Omicron wave in January 2022. This has been fuelling demand in the MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions and events) segment," Crisil Ratings Senior Director Mohit Makhija said. Crisil Ratings .

Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity. This will test the resilience of domestic demand," Crisil chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi said in a note. Aditi Nayar, his counterpart at Icra, in her report pencilled a 6.5 per cent growth in Q2 of the current fiscal, nearly half of the year-ago quarter when the economy had clipped at 12.7 per cent, but which is still a tad higher than the monetary policy committee's Septembe

Riding on a broad-based economic recovery and stronger, cleaner balance sheets, lenders are expected to see their credit growing at 15 per cent this fiscal and the next, a report said on Tuesday. Credit growth so far this fiscal has printed in at around 18 per cent, which is a decadal high. Already, large lenders have seen corporates flocking to banks for funds for capital expenditure and also for working capital as the demand side of the economy is faring better. SBI has the best corporate loan sales in Q2 recording a 20 per cent growth and so did most other lenders including private sector banks. Bank credit is seen growing 15 per cent per annum in fiscals 2023 and 2024, Crisil said in a report. The agency said that its forecast is based on an expected 7 per cent GDP growth this fiscal, as well as the expected continuation of the credit push from government's infrastructure spends, higher working capital demand in a high-inflation environment, and some substitution of debt capit

The aggregate indebtedness of states, is expected to remain elevated at 30-31 per cent this fiscal, almost similar to 31.5 per cent of last fiscal, Crisil report said

The quality of some of the important economic statistics put out by the govt - for much of which there can be no comparable private substitute - remain questionable and undependable, writes T N Ninan

The air traffic volume is expected to increase to the fiscal 2020 level of around 340 million passengers in FY23

Despite a high double-digit demand growth, the profitability of cement companies is set to fall by 15 per cent because price hikes lag increase in production cost, according to a report. The report by rating agency Crisil, however, said that higher demand will cushion the credit outlook for the sector. Operating profitability of cement makers will decline 15 per cent year-on-year to Rs 900-925 per tonne this fiscal, adding to the pain of a 9 per cent decline last fiscal, as an increase in realisations will not be enough to offset the increase in prices of coal, petcoke and diesel that has pushed the average cost of production higher, the agency said in a report on Monday. However, the 17 per cent demand growth in cement demand during the first quarter, albeit on the low base last fiscal, offers a silver lining, the report noted, saying though growth may taper in subsequent quarters, and print in at 8-10 per cent for the full fiscal, it will still be the highest since fiscal 2019. O

In FY22 the ITeS sector's revenue logged 13-15% growth to about Rs 3.1 tn, riding on volume recovery across the three key segments - customer relationship management (CRM), knowledge, and transactions

Sharp 35-40% decline in prices over the past five years has been the key growth driver; other tailwinds include greater rising incomes, higher OTT consumption and deeper web penetration