China's footprint expands in Bangladesh in spite of an India-friendly govt

On March 22, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina inaugurated the country's first submarine base named after her – BNS Sheikh Hasina – at Pekua in Cox's Bazar. Built at the cost of $1.2 billion, the submarine base can house six submarines and a number of warships. It has been constructed by China. Two Chinese-made submarines berth there.

The base's location, on the mouth of the Bay of Bengal, gives it clear access to the bay and the Indian Ocean. Submarines sailing from here would come very close to India's Andaman and Nicobar Command. Even Indian military assets at Vizag would be within close reach. This would be unexceptionable but for expectations that People's Liberation Army Navy personnel will be onboard the Bangladeshi subs in the training runs.

India did not comment on Dhaka's decision to acquire Chinese submarines in 2013. Now, Delhi's public silence on the construction and inauguration of the submarine base is all the more unusual given the increasing geo-political competition since then in the Indo-Pacific.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Bangladesh is a top purchaser of Chinese arms. Imports from China accounted for 73.6 per cent of the country's foreign military acquisition between 2010-2020, making it the top arms supplier to Bangladesh.

Strategic experts believe that the Chinese focus will now be more on engaging the Bangladesh Navy as its primary interests in the region are maritime. Some foresee that Bangladesh may in future be "strong-armed" into giving China continued access to the submarine base, relying on ambiguity in the Sino-Bangladesh "Defence Cooperation Agreement". Expanded strategic cooperation in the future could include training of submarine personnel and more joint drills with the navy. In 2019, in a joint statement with Beijing, Dhaka supported China's plans to bolster its defence industry, strengthening the Bangladesh Navy and its maritime management in the Bay of Bengal.

Bangladesh has recently allowed a Chinese survey vessel Hai Yang Shi You 760, in the Bay of Bengal. The seismic survey ship is apparently exploring oil and gas within Bangladesh's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). While the Indian Navy is believed to be monitoring its activities, India's response remains muted compared to its strong displeasure when the Chinese Yuan Wang 5 docked at Hambantota port in Sri Lanka last August.

A RAND Corporation research paper, "China's Global Basing Ambitions: Defense Implications for the United States", has identified Bangladesh among the top four out of 108 countries examined as best suited for the Chinese pursuit of military "basing and access". The other three are Pakistan, Cambodia and Myanmar.

Chinese initiatives in Bangladesh also follow from its membership in China's Belt and Road Initiative. According to the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority, there were 510 Chinese companies operating in the country in 2020. The number is estimated to be between 650 and 700 now. There are about 98,000 Chinese citizens in Bangladesh, including diplomats and workers in Chinese projects. No one knows how many are PLA reservists, but such concerns may arise because of strategic competition in the region.

China is the biggest FDI contributor to Bangladesh's economy. Its infrastructure projects in Bangladesh include the recently completed 6.15 km long Padma Bridge; the Karnaphuli River under-water Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Tunnel, the 1320 MW coal-fired Payra Power Project, the extension of the Cox's Bazar Airport into land reclaimed from the sea, the Sheikh Hasina Institute of IT and High-Tech Park, the Dasherkandi Sewage Treatment Plant, procurement tankers, high-tech bridge construction on rural roads and the Teesta Project, among others. Bangladesh may rightly claim that these are development projects executed with Chinese technical help and finance.

However, India may be concerned by Chinese participation in projects close to the Indian border, especially those adjoining the strategically important Siliguri Corridor (Chicken's Neck) connecting India's northeast to the rest of the country. Among locations of concern are the Teesta Project on the river's lower reaches in Bangladesh, the Akhaura-Sylhet railway line and Chinese access to the Sylhet and Saidpur airports. China is engaged in expanding Sylhet airport, a dual-use airport located only 8 km from a Bangladesh Air Force Base. Bangladesh had earlier obliged Delhi when it opposed the Chinese role in its construction, but it then changed its mind.

India will particularly worry about Chinese involvement in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management Project. It involves dredging the entire course of the river after its crosses into Bangladesh from India, straightening its course, digging ponds and reservoirs in the river bed to store water for the dry season, reclaiming the land in the river basin, setting up roads, satellite towns and industrial parks with a generous offer of loans from China. In July 2020, Bangladesh sought a loan of $983 million from China to implement the project, with Dhaka bearing 15 per cent of the total project cost (about $130 million). The project, which has been approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council of Bangladesh, will bring Chinese presence close to the Indian border along Sylhet, Comilla and Rangpur. This is perhaps a consequence of India and Bangladesh failing to agree on Teesta water sharing. The last such attempt failed in 2011.

China is also expanding its role in Bangladesh's civil society. Besides the two Confucius Institutes, privately-run Chinese Language Clubs have sprung up in the country, which the Chinese Embassy supports. Bangladeshi students going to China on Chinese government scholarships run into thousands. There are alumni organisations of not only China-educated students but also newly formed associations of former ambassadors and former defence attaches to China. In addition, there is considerable media outreach by Chinese diplomats. Some Bangladeshi observers are uncomfortable with what they see as a concerted "elite capture" by China.

The growing Chinese influence in India's neighbourhood, already evident in Sri Lanka and Nepal, is now also palpable in Bangladesh. Despite the current regime in Dhaka swearing friendship with India, the ground is shifting in favour of China. India's inability to do anything about it is surprising.

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the writer. They do not reflect the views of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper