Nomura sees muted Nifty returns in 2025, sets December target at 23,784

Nomura Nifty target: Nomura suggests investors stay highly "selective" and bet on stocks and/or sectors with relative valuation comfort tag

Nomura Nifty target 2025:Sharing a subdued outlook for India stock markets for calendar year 2025, global brokerage Nomura has pegged 23,784 as December 2025 Nifty target.

 

Factoring-in downside risks to earnings, along with slightly expensive valuation, Nomura said it expects the stock markets to deliver returns in the range of -8 per cent to +9 per cent over the next one year.

 

"The Nifty is currently trading at 19.4x one-year forward consensus earnings, close to the past three-year average of 19.2x. Over the past three years (CY21-24), the market has traded in the range of 17-23x. This is compared to pre-Covid (2017-19) average of 17.7x when the market traded in a range of 16-19x. Slowdown in earnings growth and potential rise in equity risk premium can drive the multiples below the past three-year average in the near-term," Saion Mukherjee of Nomura said in a co-authored note with Amlan Jyoti Das on Wednesday, January 15.

  

Mukherjee and Das have assigned an 18.5x multiple to their December, 2026, earnings estimates, factoring in 5 per cent lower earnings compared to consensus estimates, to arrive at the December 2025 Nifty target of 23,784 in their base case scenario. This implies just 0.5 per cent upside from current levels.

 

In their bear case, they have set Nifty 2025 target at 21,856, assigned a December 2026 earnings multiple of 17x. This means Nifty may see 7.7 per cent downside from current levels.