India likely to get 'below average' monsoon rains in 2023, says Skymet

In a warning sign, private weather forecasting agency, Skymet today said that the southwest monsoon in 2023 is expected to be ‘below normal’ at 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to impact of El Nino, which has reared its head after four consecutive years of normal to above normal rains.

In terms of quantum, the private weather forecasting agency said that rains in the June to September period that provides more than 70 per cent of the country’s annual precipitation is expected to be at 816.5 millimeters as against the normal of 868.8 millimeters.

The forecast is with an error margin of plus and minus five per cent.

The forecast should ring alarm bells for the country’s agriculture sector, rural economy and also overall economic health as monsoons are an integral part of all three. But, the performance of the agriculture sector also depends on timeliness, spread and distribution of the monsoon rains. 

Low overall quantum of rains but if it is well distributed and timely might not be extremely bad for agriculture production.

The state-run official weather forecasting agency; India Meteorological Department (IMD) will come out with its first stage forecast for the 2023 monsoon season later this month.

“The weak spot in the overall Indian economy story has been agriculture and any shock in terms of poor monsoon will definitely impact kharif production. It will be a major risk factor going forward, something which could keep inflation on the higher side even though the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects inflation to moderate in this fiscal,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda said.

Meanwhile, Skymet in its forecast also said region wise, it expects northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of rain deficiency.

Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will receive deficient rains during the main monsoon months of July and August.

Also, the agricultural regions of North India, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are likely to receive below normal rains in the second half of the season.

“Courtesy of the triple-dip-La Nina, the southwest monsoon recorded normal/above-normal rainfall for the last 4 consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended. Major Oceanic and Atmospheric neutrals are in line with ENSO. El Nino is becoming more likely to become a major feature during the Monsoon. The return of El Nino may predict a weak monsoon,” Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet said in a statement.

The statement also added that apart from El Nino, there are other factors that affect the monsoon.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to moderate the monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino if it is strong enough.

The IOD is now neutral and is trending towards being moderately positive at the onset of monsoon.

“El Niño and the IOD are likely to be 'out of phase' and there can be extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. The second half of the season is expected to be more unusual,” Skymet said.

In terms of probability, the forecast said that there is a 40 per cent chance of the monsoons being below average that is 90-95 per cent of the LPA, while there is a 25 per cent chance of it being even less than 90 per cent of the LPA. The LPA for southwest monsoon is 86.88 centimeters.

There is only 25 per cent chance of the rains being average at 96-104 per cent of the LPA, as per the forecast and 15 per cent chance of it being above average at 105-110 per cent of LPA.

Month-wise, the forecast said that rain in June is expected to be at 99 percent of LPA (LPA for June is 165.3 millimeters), while it will be 95 per cent of the LPA in July (LPA for July is 280.5 millimeters).

In August, the monsoon is expected to be 92 per cent of the LPA (254.9 millimeters) and in September it is expected to be 90 per cent of the LPA (167.9 millimeters).