Expect RBI to start rate cuts by end of FY24: HDFC Bank chief economist

Abheek Barua said that the Indian economy is expected to grow at 4.4% in the quarter ended March 31

The end of the repo rate hike cycle has been reached and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may start slashing the key interest rate in the last quarter of the current financial year (Q4FY24), Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank told Raghav Aggarwal in an interview over phone. Barua said the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.8 per cent in FY23, lower than RBI's prediction and the National Statistical Office's (NSO) estimates of 7 per cent. Excerpts here:

What are your expectations from inflation now that it is below RBI's upper tolerance limit?

 

In this quarter, partly because of the base effect and genuine moderation on some core categories, we see inflation below 5 per cent. Then it will move above 5 per cent and stay in the 5-5.5 per cent range for the rest of the year.

The average retail inflation is expected to be around 5 per cent, possibly lower if things go well with the monsoon.

 

And what are your expectations from wholesale inflation?

WPI inflation is likely to remain negative for the next four months and then pick up. But it will stay subdued not only because of the base effect but also because of subdued