Karnataka Assembly Elections: Exit polls give Congress the edge over BJP

Voter turnout at all time high at 72.67%, betters the record set in the previous election

Most exit polls predicted that the Congress would edge past the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a tight contest for the 224-member Karnataka Assembly, polling for which concluded on Wednesday.

The provisional polling data suggested Karnataka improving upon its all time best voter turnout of 72.36% set in 2018.

After the experience of urban apathy towards voting reducing the turnout to 55 per cent in Bengaluru city in 2018, the EC fixed Wednesday as the polling day to prevent people from taking an extended holiday, which was the case in 2018 as the polling took place on a Saturday. However, Bengaluru’s voting percentage hovered around a poor 50 per cent until 5 pm.

Among the exit polls, India Today-Axis My India predicted a clear majority for the Congress of 122-140 seats with a 43 per cent vote share, an increase of five per cent over 2018. It gave the BJP 62-80 seats with 35 per cent of the votes, a percentage point lesser than the last elections. The agency predicted a sharper decline for the regional Janata Dal (Secular). It said the party, influential primarily in the old Mysuru region, might get 20-25 seats with a 16 per cent vote share, a drop of 3 per cent.

In 2018, the Congress had led the vote share at 38 per cent with 80 seats, but the BJP emerged the single largest party winning 104 seats despite getting 2 per cent lesser vote share. The JD(S), with an 18 per cent vote share, won 37 seats. The exit polls, if they turn out correct, would be consistent with Karnataka’s voting behaviour. The state has not repeated a government in nearly four decades.

Today’s Chanakya also predicted a majority for the Congress with 120 seats and a sharp uptick in its vote share, as against 92 seats for the BJP and 12 for the JD(S). ABP News-C Voter predicted 100-112 seats for the Congress, 83-95 for the BJP, and 21-29 for the JD(S). Most others indicated that the Congress could emerge as the single largest party but fall short of the majority mark of 113.

Meanwhile, some other polls gave the BJP the lead. A poll by News Nation-CGS said the BJP would get 114 seats, the Congress 86, and the JD(S) 21. The Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat forecast that the BJP was likely to win 94-117, Congress 91-106 and the JD(S) 14-24.

The Congress fears a rerun of ‘Operation Kamala’, through which the BJP had mustered the support of rival MLAs, if it manages only a wafer-thin majority.

The JD(S) still hopes to play king-maker if there is a hung verdict, like it did in 2018.

Echoes of the Karnataka Assembly polls were heard in Rajasthan during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the northern state’s Abu Road, including references to Bajrang Bali and the evacuation from Sudan members of the Hakki Pikki tribe. BJP leaders presented Modi with an idol of Lord Hanuman.

The PM slammed the Congress for publicly flagging the need for evacuating members of the Hakki Pikki tribe from Sudan. He said the Congress exposed their identity, putting their lives at risk. The PM said the “biggest fraud” of the last 50 years was the Congress’ “guarantee”, which it promised people in the 1970s, to alleviate poverty or garibi hatao.

The Congress is fighting the Karnataka polls on the promise of its ‘five guarantees’, including a monthly allowance of ~2,000 to female heads of households.