Statsguru: Six charts show average variation in the Budget estimates

In the ten years between 2012-13 and 2021-22, the government has been able to meet its Budget Estimate (BE) only four times

Union Budget
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman
Ishaan Gera New Delhi
2 min read Last Updated : Jan 29 2023 | 9:26 PM IST
On February 1, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the last full Budget of the second Narendra Modi government. While the Budget size is expected to expand further, a Business Standard analysis found the average variation in the Budget Estimate and actuals has been 5.26 per cent. In the ten years between 2012-13 and 2021-22, the government has been able to meet its Budget Estimate (BE) only four times (chart 1). The performance on the tax front has been similar, where the government is expected to exceed its BE (chart 2). The Revised Estimate (RE) for tax collections for 2021-22 was 14.2 per cent higher than BE.

Besides presenting the BE for the coming year, the Budget document gives the RE for the current year and the actual numbers for the previous year. The difference in divestment has been even higher, as the RE for 2021-22 was 55 per cent below the BE for that year. The government’s performance has been dismal in this regard. In eight of the 10 years, the government missed its Budget target (chart 3). An analysis of the targets from tax revenue collections and divestments shows that the difference between the Budget and actual numbers widened in the years after the government met its targets. The capex performance has improved over the last four years.

Since 2018-19, the government has overshot its capital spending targets for each year (chart 4). In the social sector, education spending has met the target in only one of the 10 years for which data was analysed. The difference between the BE for 2021-22 and the RE was 5.6 per cent (chart 5). Health, on the other hand, has witnessed a better performance. Although the pandemic led to overshooting of health targets, the government’s performance with regard to health expenditure had improved starting 2015-16 (chart 6). The RE for 2021-22 was 15.2 per cent higher than the BE.

One subscription. Two world-class reads.

Already subscribed? Log in

Subscribe to read the full story →
Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Quarterly Starter

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

Save 46%

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Access to Exclusive Premium Stories Online

  • Over 30 behind the paywall stories daily, handpicked by our editors for subscribers

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

Topics :Budget estimatesBudget 2023Union Budget

Next Story