How should India tackle China's expanding reach in the Indian oceans?

These developments have naturally alarmed India’s security outlook towards the Indian Ocean region. In order to address this heightened insecurity, India has sought to deepen its engagement with the Indian Ocean littoral states as a first responder to regional crises and as a developmental partner. Indian efforts in the region have also involved active engagement with like-minded countries at bilateral, minilateral, as well as regional multilateral levels to strengthen the overall maritime security architecture in the Indian Ocean. These have resulted in the propulsion of a contest between India and China to seek primacy in the Indian Ocean, which is evidently playing out in various domains such as competition for port infrastructure, delivery of global goods and assistance in maritime security preparedness. While China’s engagement strategy appears to operate on a quid pro quo basis, India’s approach seems to be driven by its interests and objectives to emerge as a principal maritime security actor in the region. In order to contest China’s growing influence and maritime power in the region, prompting critical security challenges, India seems to have adopted a strategy that underscores the vitality of being a stakeholder in the region, with continued emphasis on how location and manifest regional identity are increasingly emerging as important variables in fostering cooperation on issues of mutual interest.

Why is the Indian Ocean important? 

Historically, the Indian Ocean had been a vital fulcrum in the making of the global order. However, during the Cold War period, the global relevance of the region saw a decline, possibly due to the lack of any overt contestation unfolding in the region. In addition to this, no major conflict or challenge seemed to have emerged in the region, resulting in the receipt of global attention. Due to this, the Indian Ocean, for long, was considered to be a neglected ocean. 

However, arguably, much of it appears to be changing since the onset of the 21st century. The growing significance of the Indian Ocean may be attributed to three reasons. First, the onset of the 21st century has marked a continued transition of the global order. New economies in the region have emerged as critical stakeholders in shaping the global order. The rise of India and China has resulted in the proliferation of trade networks across the region. Second, the growing challenge of piracy, especially off the coast of Somalia, has posed a vital challenge for the protection of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), spanning across the region, resulting in growing efforts to strengthen the overall maritime security architecture in the region. Third, the emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a new construct of cartographic mapping of the oceans has brought the Indian Ocean into strategic limelight. The Indo-Pacific geography, encompassing the Indian and Pacific oceans, has increasingly emerged as a new fulcrum shaping global order. Due to this, the shifting strategic and security dynamics in the Indian Ocean appear to be having a growing significance and implication for the shaping of the global order.

Chinese advances

Chinese naval overreach in the Indian Ocean has remained limited, in significant contrast to the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s continued aggression and belligerence in the South China Sea region. However, it would be remiss to discount Chinese maritime advances in the Indian Ocean. As opposed to the South China Sea region, where Chinese naval presence remains overt, in the Indian Ocean, China appears to have adopted a strategy of a long game. 

Three crucial drivers are evidently at play in advancing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean. First, China’s growing political and economic engagement with Indian Ocean littoral countries is a key driver of China’s growing presence in the region. Chinese ambitions of emerging as a crucial stakeholder in the region seem to be unfolding by way of enhancing its political influence in the region. China’s growing proximity with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and, more recently, Bangladesh, has alarmed India’s security thinking. China’s extensive investment in building port infrastructure across the Indian Ocean region has increasingly cautioned India, owing to the mounting strategic vulnerability it could pose. Given the continued tensions between the two countries, resulting in border skirmishes, the maritime domain may likely emerge as a new frontier of Chinese aggression. Towards this end, China’s ambitions of building a network of strategic port infrastructure along the Indian Ocean may be seen as an attempt to seek control of the SLOCs, which remain vital for Indian interests. Second, China has been increasingly sending its research vessels into the Indian Ocean. These vessels have docked in Sri Lanka as well as the Maldives. The growing presence of these ships in the waters of the Indian Ocean presents the risk of growing underwater surveillance. Given the rapid growth of the use of technology in maritime security efforts, underwater domain awareness is fast emerging as a vital component of maritime security preparedness. Chinese research vessels have, therefore, invited growing suspicion of an imminent challenge for India. Third, China has also sought to foster cooperation at a regional level by way of initiating the China-Indian Ocean Forum since 2022, signalling its intent to play a leading role in shaping regional dynamics on issues of common interest. India’s absence from this forum is notable, given its role in shaping the overall order in the Indian Ocean. 

Indian responses

India’s responses to the China challenge can be seen as multifaceted and evolving in tandem with the nuanced risks posed by China’s creeping advances in the Indian Ocean. Three key efforts stand out in this regard. New Delhi has increasingly projected its role in the region as a leader in maritime security preparedness while remaining cautious of not reinforcing the client-patron dynamic that is evident in China’s engagements. As a first responder or a preferred security partner, India has made progress in fostering maritime cooperation on key issues such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief activities, maritime domain awareness, and developmental assistance. Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has articulated a revised strategic framework for India in the Indian Ocean – MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth for All in the Region). Second, India has sought to strengthen institutional efforts for maritime security cooperation in the region. India’s continued advocacy for the Indian Ocean identity being the fulcrum of cooperation in the region through the Indian Ocean Rim Association suggests a continued attempt to divorce China from Indian Ocean affairs, given that Beijing is not located geographically in the region. Other initiatives, such as the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, cooperation through the Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region, Quad, and the Colombo Security Conclave, demonstrate India’s calibrated approach to fostering maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean. Interestingly, India also appears to have warmed up to the idea of expanding and deepening strategic partnerships with like-minded countries in the Indian Ocean. While previously New Delhi did exhibit suspicion about the engagement of major powers in the region, the growing synergy between the Quad, as well as the steady progress of various bilateral maritime exercises, suggests growing intent from India to cooperate with major powers in the Indian Ocean.

Third, India has also undertaken efforts to strengthen its maritime power by way of investing in the indigenous development of naval assets, as well as naval modernisation. A slew of commissioning of naval warships suggests that force buildup is indeed now a key priority for New Delhi in the Indian Ocean. 

India’s security challenges posed by China’s rising influence in the Indian Ocean are dynamic. China’s maritime expansion in the Indian Ocean is not just a direct security threat to India, but also appears to be geared towards shifting the maritime order in the region. India’s strategic interests, objectives, and compulsions are intrinsically anchored on the Indian Ocean. A proliferating role of China in the region has, therefore, seemingly prompted a contest for primacy in the region.

Harsh V Pant is vice-president, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi. Sayantan Haldar is a research assistant, Maritime Security Initiative, ORF. Views are personal.